Potential Distribution of Fall Armyworm in Africa and Beyond, Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns

Timilsena, Bipana Paudel; Niassy, Saliou; Kimathi, Emily; Abdel‐Rahman, Elfatih M.; Seidl-Adams, Irmgard; Wamalwa, Mark; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Ekesi, Sunday; Hughes, David; Rajotte, Edwin G.; Subramanian, Sevgan

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-196606/v1

Cited by 6 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…As Mitchell ( 21 , p. 452) observed, “Philip Luginbill’s 1928 treatise on the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), long has been considered the source for authoritative information on the biology and dynamics of this pest.” Luginbill’s treatise provides a significant amount of information on the pest’s phenology, including evidence on locations where the climate is deemed suitable for the year-round survival and propagation of fall armyworm, and the geographical extent of seasonal outbreaks of the pest across the United States (see, e.g., 20 ). More recent, and more formal, quantitative approaches to assessing the geographical pattern of fall armyworm risk include studies by du Plessis et al ( 9 ) Ramirez-Cabral et al ( 39 ) Early et al ( 40 ) Baloch et al ( 41 ) Maino et al ( 42 ), and Timilsena et al ( 43 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fall armyworm from a maize multi-peril pest risk perspective

Senay

Pardey²,

Chai³

et al. 2022

Front. Insect Sci.

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We assembled 3,175 geo-tagged occurrences of fall armyworm worldwide and used that data in conjunction with information about the physiological requirements of the pest to spatially assess its global climate suitability. Our analysis indicates that almost the entire African maize crop is grown in areas with climates that support seasonal infestations of the insect, while almost 92% of the maize area supports year-round growth of the pest. In contrast, rich-country maize production largely occurs in temperate areas where only 2.3% of the area may allow the pest to survive year-round, although still subject to worrisome seasonal risks. This means the African maize crop is especially susceptible to damaging infestation from fall armyworm, on par with the risk exposure to this pest faced by maize producers throughout Latin America. We show that the maize grown in Africa is also especially vulnerable to infestations from a host of other crop pests. Our multi-peril pest risk study reveals that over 95% of the African maize area deemed climate suitable for fall armyworm, can also support year-round survival of at least three or more pests. The spatial concurrence of climatically suitable locations for these pests raises the production risk for farmers well above the risks posed from fall armyworm alone. Starkly, over half (52.5%) of the African maize area deemed suitable for fall armyworm is also at risk from a further nine pests, while over a third (38.1%) of the area is susceptible to an additional 10 pests. This constitutes an exceptionally risky production environment for African maize producers, with substantive and complex implications for developing and implementing crop breeding, biological, chemical and other crop management strategies to help mitigate these multi-peril risks.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fall armyworm from a maize multi-peril pest risk perspective

Senay

Pardey²,

Chai³

et al. 2022

Front. Insect Sci.

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“…Modeling studies indicate that this movement correlates with the northward progression of corn acreage, the planting of which presumably provides an abundant and perhaps essential early season host for both strains 39,40 . In comparison, the climate of much of South America is compatible with FAW year-round, causing much less seasonal variability in host availability for both strains 41 . It seems plausible that this climatic difference creates selection pressures unique to North America for the R-strain to adapt to corn as a host.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The phylogeny of host choice in a global agricultural pest undergoing sympatric speciation.

Nagoshi

2022

Preprint

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The threat of invasive species is increasing with the expansion of global trade and habitat disruption. A recent example is the spread of fall armyworm (FAW), a noctuid moth native to the Americas, into most of the Eastern Hemisphere with projections of significant economic losses. The species is subdivided into two populations that differ in their plant host specificity. However, inconsistencies in the genetic and phenotypic definitions of these “host strains” has led to controversy about their existence, which could significantly impact current monitoring and mitigation protocols. Here is described a phylogenetic definition of the host strains that confirm their relevance and provide improved quantification of their genetic differentiation and selection pressures. The results support the traditional view of these populations being at an intermediate stage of sympatric speciation driven by differential host use while also describing a new approach to investigate the evolution of this important global pest.

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“…The high migratory ability of the species causes concerns about the potential impacts of transient populations moving from hotspots to new areas during the favourable season (EFSA PLH Panel et al 2018a;Timilsena et al 2022). A realistic threat is the introduction of individuals from North Africa to Europe due to natural or wind-mediated dispersal (Westbrook et al 2016;Early et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of establishment and potential impacts of transient populations of Spodoptera frugiperda in Europe

Gilioli

Sperandio

Simonetto

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is an invasive pest threatening crop production and food security worldwide. High concerns are linked to the potential establishment of the species in Europe. The high migratory capacity of S. frugiperda cause concerns about the potential impacts of transient populations invading new areas from suitable hotspots. In the present work, we developed and used a physiologically-based demographic model to quantitatively assess the risks of S. frugiperda in Europe. The risks were assessed considering a best-, a median-, and a worst-case scenario. The Mediterranean coastal areas of Southern Europe resulted suitable for the establishment of the species, with suitable areas reaching even higher latitudes, in the worst-case scenario. In Europe, up to 4 generations per year were predicted. The predicted average yearly adult population was 5 (± 4), 17 (± 5), and 139 (± 22) in the best, median-, and worst-case assessment scenario, respectively. Model results showed that Southern and Central Europe might be exposed to the risk of transient populations, at least up to the 48th parallel north, in the worst-case scenario. Depending on the latitude and on the period of arrival of the propagule, transient populations might be able to originate 1 or more generations per year. The model can be used to define strategies reducing the risks of establishment of the pest at the country level. Predictions on the dynamics and phenology of the pest can also be used to support its management at the local level.

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Potential Distribution of Fall Armyworm in Africa and Beyond, Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns

Cited by 6 publications

References 47 publications

Fall armyworm from a maize multi-peril pest risk perspective

Fall armyworm from a maize multi-peril pest risk perspective

The phylogeny of host choice in a global agricultural pest undergoing sympatric speciation.

Risk of establishment and potential impacts of transient populations of Spodoptera frugiperda in Europe

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