2022
DOI: 10.1111/roie.12608
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PostCOVID‐19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges

Abstract: We study emerging markets' 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974–1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946–1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of l… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(3 citation statements)
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References 25 publications
(23 reference statements)
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“…In particular, countries with high public debt levels apply economic policies based on fiscal austerity measures, including spending cuts or tax increases, which could negatively impact the funding for healthcare systems [50] [52] . In fact, high levels of public debt have negative effects on economic systems [53] and can decrease a government's ability to respond to emergencies and social problems [54] , [55] . Studies show that high levels of public debt can reduce government expenditure in the health and education sector [56] , [57] .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…In particular, countries with high public debt levels apply economic policies based on fiscal austerity measures, including spending cuts or tax increases, which could negatively impact the funding for healthcare systems [50] [52] . In fact, high levels of public debt have negative effects on economic systems [53] and can decrease a government's ability to respond to emergencies and social problems [54] , [55] . Studies show that high levels of public debt can reduce government expenditure in the health and education sector [56] , [57] .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In particular, economic policies of debt reduction often decrease health expenditure, a main item of the public budget, and affect the effectiveness of overall health systems [58] . As a consequence, high-debt economies are more vulnerable to crises [59] because debt servicing costs can lead to slower economic growth [53] .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…(2021) find that for economies that were more open, the effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on their financial markets was more severe. In terms of the fiscal response to the pandemic, Aizenman and Ito (2023) note that for advanced countries that are more financially open, an increase in government debt can have a more negative effect on output growth. Instead, for developing countries, greater financial openness would dampen the negative effect of increasing the debt on output growth.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%