Negative effects of high public debt on health systems facing pandemic crisis: Lessons from COVID-19 in Europe to prepare for future emergencies

Coccia, Mario; Benati, Igor

doi:10.3934/publichealth.2024024

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(94 reference statements)

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“…Projected spending estimates suggest that between 2022 and 2026, governments in 17 of the 137 low-medium income countries will increase in national government health spending equivalent to an addition of 1% of GDP. Jacques et al (2023) show that public health systems have been center stage during the COVID-19 pandemic, but governments have invested relatively little resources in public health in recent years also because of fiscal austerity applied in modern economic systems to slow dynamics of public deficits and debts (Coccia and Benati, 2024). The analysis of the data here reveals, between European countries, that high investments in health system have vital role in the preparedness to face pandemic crises and in general emergencies (Coccia, 2020a.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Almeida (2024) suggests the existence of a trade-off between health system efficiency and health system resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Instead, empirical evidence here suggests that a good governance supports, associated with appropriate expenditures and investments, efficient and effective health infrastructure, disease surveillance systems and tools of health policy responses that improve the prevention and management of outbreaks and the treatment of infected patients (Coccia and Benati, 2024; Kluge et al. , 2020; Sagan et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jacques et al. (2023) show that public health systems have been center stage during the COVID-19 pandemic, but governments have invested relatively little resources in public health in recent years also because of fiscal austerity applied in modern economic systems to slow dynamics of public deficits and debts (Coccia and Benati, 2024).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, countries with good governance, in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic, have implemented effective public health contact tracing system, which associated with other interventions, they have mitigated the spread of novel viral agent and protected vulnerable populations in the initial phase of pandemic wave (Benati and Coccia, 2022a; Coccia, 2022b). Coccia and Benati (2024) maintain that high levels of public debt in countries trigger budget constraints that limit their ability to allocate resources to healthcare systems (e.g., health expenditures and investments), weakening health system performance and causing systemic vulnerability and lower preparedness during emergencies, such as with the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, the group of Global Burden of Disease (2023) suggests that there is a unique opportunity to increase and sustain funding for crucial health functions, also including aspects for pandemic preparedness.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the effective role of healthcare expenditures and other structural factors of health systems on the impact of COVID-19 in society is hardly known (Coccia and Benati, 2024; Rađenović et al. , 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effective health systems facing pandemic crisis: lessons from COVID-19 in Europe for next emergencies

Coccia,

Benati

2024

IJHG

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PurposeThe investigation goal is the analysis of the relation between healthcare expenditures and other resources, and COVID-19 fatality rates among European countries to design effective health policies for crisis management.Design/methodology/approachResearch methodology is based on descriptive statistics and various parametric methods, also including a linear model of regression to analyze basic relationships of variables under study.FindingsResults show that a lower COVID-19 fatality rate is associated with higher levels of health expenditure (% GDP), of healthcare expenditure per capita, health expenditure in preventive care (% GDP), hospitals per million inhabitants, physicians, nurses, hospital beds and curative acute care beds per 1,000 inhabitants. Regression analysis shows that a 1% increase in healthcare expenditures per capita of countries, it reduces the level of COVID-19 fatality rate by 0.74%. In fact, many countries in Eastern Europe with low healthcare expenditures per capita in 2019 (e.g., Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, etc.), they have experienced high COVID-19 fatality rates. Instead, a lot of countries in Western Europe, with high healthcare expenditures per capita, such as Germany, Denmark, Austria, and the Netherlands, they had resilient health systems to face pandemic crisis and lower COVID-19 fatality rates.Practical implicationsThese findings suggest strategies of systematic and continuous investments in healthcare, medical technologies, and ICT infrastructures to support effective health policy of crisis management in countries to face future pandemic crisis and other emergencies in society.Originality/valueThe explanation of critical role of high health expenditure (% GDP) and healthcare expenditure per capita to support robust health systems that bolster the resilience in nations to face health emergencies and worldwide crises.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effective health systems facing pandemic crisis: lessons from COVID-19 in Europe for next emergencies

Coccia,

Benati

2024

IJHG

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Analyzing factors of daily travel distances in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic

Mori,

Omae,

Kakimoto

et al. 2024

MBE

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<p>The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is widely recognized as a significant concern, with human flow playing a crucial role in its propagation. Consequently, recent research has focused on identifying and analyzing factors that can effectively regulate human flow. However, among the multiple factors that are expected to have an effect, few studies have investigated those that are particularly associated with human flow during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, few studies have investigated how regional characteristics and the number of vaccinations for these factors affect human flow. Furthermore, increasing the number of verified cases in countries and regions with insufficient reports is important to generalize conclusions. Therefore, in this study, a group-level analysis was conducted for Narashino City, Chiba Prefecture, Japan, using a human flow prediction model based on machine learning. High-importance groups were subdivided by regional characteristics and the number of vaccinations, and visual and correlation analyses were conducted at the factor level. The findings indicated that tree-based models, especially LightGBM, performed better in terms of prediction. In addition, the cumulative number of vaccinated individuals and the number of newly infected individuals are likely explanatory factors for changes in human flow. The analyses suggested a tendency to move with respect to the number of newly infected individuals in Japan or Tokyo, rather than the number of new infections in the area where they lived when vaccination had not started. With the implementation of vaccination, attention to the number of newly infected individuals in their residential areas may increase. However, after the spread of vaccination, the perception of infection risk may decrease. These findings can contribute to the proposal of new measures for efficiently controlling human flows and determining when to mitigate or reinforce specific measures.</p>

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Country Risk to Face Global Emergencies: Negative Effects of High Public Debt on Health Expenditures and Fatality Rate in COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

Mario

2024

IgMin Res

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Risk is a variation of performance in the presence of events and it can negatively impact socioeconomic system of countries. Statistical evidence here shows that high public debt reduces health expenditures over time and increases the vulnerability and risk of European countries to face health emergencies, such as COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Overall, then, findings suggest that high public debt weakens healthcare and socioeconomic system of countries to cope with crises, such as COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts, natural disasters, etc. JEL Codes: I18; H12; H51; H60; H63

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Negative effects of high public debt on health systems facing pandemic crisis: Lessons from COVID-19 in Europe to prepare for future emergencies

Cited by 3 publications

References 64 publications

Effective health systems facing pandemic crisis: lessons from COVID-19 in Europe for next emergencies

Effective health systems facing pandemic crisis: lessons from COVID-19 in Europe for next emergencies

Analyzing factors of daily travel distances in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic

Country Risk to Face Global Emergencies: Negative Effects of High Public Debt on Health Expenditures and Fatality Rate in COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

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