Possibilities and Probabilities

Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Johnson‐Laird, P. N.

doi:10.1002/047001332x.ch8

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Understanding whether an event is possible is a vital skill when making judgments that transcend the physical evidence at hand. ( 38‐40 ) For instance, knowing whether it is possible to become pregnant from having unprotected sex just once may determine whether one faces the dilemma of an unplanned pregnancy. ( 31 ) Studies show that the ability to differentiate between possible and impossible events is well developed in adults.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do People Believe Combined Hazards Can Present Synergistic Risks?

2011

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The risk attributable to some hazard combinations can be greater than the sum of the risk attributable to each constituent hazard. Such "synergistic risks" occur in several domains, can vary in magnitude, and often have harmful, even life-threatening, outcomes. Yet, the extent to which people believe that combined hazards can present synergistic risks is unclear. We present the results of two experimental studies aimed at addressing this issue. In both studies, participants examined synergistic and additive risk scenarios, and judged whether these were possible. The results indicate that the proportion of people who believe that synergistic risks can occur declines linearly as the magnitude of the synergistic risk increases. We also find that people believe, despite scientific evidence to the contrary, that certain hazard combinations are more likely to present additive or weakly synergistic risks than synergistic risks of higher magnitudes. Furthermore, our findings did not vary as a simple function of hazard domain (health vs. social), but varied according to the characteristics of the specific hazards considered (specified vs. unspecified drug combinations). These results suggest that many people's beliefs concerning the risk attributable to combined hazards could lead them to underestimate the threat posed by combinations that present synergistic risks, particularly for hazard combinations that present higher synergistic risk magnitudes. These findings highlight a need to develop risk communications that can effectively increase awareness of synergistic risks.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do People Believe Combined Hazards Can Present Synergistic Risks?

2011

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“…As explained in the introduction, in situations where previous knowledge contradicts a complete model elimination, the resulting representation could instead reduce the numerical value of the model. Another related assumption of the model theory is the equiprobability principle (JohnsonLaird et al, 1999;Legrenzi et al, 2003). In the following example it is easy to see, in a general and equiprobable case, how the probability of the next spin hitting a red grows smaller in a two-sets problem compared to a three-sets one (Â50% vs. Â17% increase) when the number of sets step up, and with it, as a logical consequence, the GF decreases (probability of occurrence in brackets): And, hence, the paradox is solved.…”

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confidence: 99%

Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambler's Fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox

Navarrete

Santamaría

2012

Journal of Cognitive Psychology

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Possibilities and Probabilities

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Do People Believe Combined Hazards Can Present Synergistic Risks?

Do People Believe Combined Hazards Can Present Synergistic Risks?

Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambler's Fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox

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