Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambler's Fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox

Navarrete, Gorka; Santamaría, Carlos

doi:10.1080/20445911.2011.625357

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(18 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In very simple terms, given a streak in one direction (e.g., three heads in a row): When a causal mechanism explaining the streak does not easily come to mind, we tend to commit the GF (e.g., after a few heads, we believe the next throw is more likely to land tails). This occurs most often when the sequential probability is perceived to be fixed (Navarrete and Santamaría, 2012 ). When a causal mechanism is easily accessible (e.g., tampered coin, hot hand, etc.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When a causal mechanism explaining the streak does not easily come to mind, we tend to commit the GF (e.g., after a few heads, we believe the next throw is more likely to land tails). This occurs most often when the sequential probability is perceived to be fixed (Navarrete and Santamaría, 2012 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Situations in which past events bear no influence on those of future ones, and, in particular, in which the probability of sequential outcomes is fixed, are primarily confined to games of chance, psychology laboratories, and sample spaces that tend toward infinity (Navarrete and Santamaría, 2012 ). Games of chance are known to be commonly addictive—a feature perhaps attributable to an illusory sense of control linked to an incapability to understand how they operate.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Small samples and evolution: did the law of small numbers arise as an adaptation to environmental challenges?

2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Small samples and evolution: did the law of small numbers arise as an adaptation to environmental challenges?

2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…In contrast, the gambler's fallacy decreased when people's inaccurate assessments of the probability of an outcome imposed costs (Terrell 1994). Navarrete and Santamaría (2012) showed, in two laboratory experiments, that the incidence of the gambler's fallacy was reduced when the size of the choice set was increased. Our paper has a different focus: we investigate how the number of prizes-the size of the outcome set-influences player's betting behavior while fixing the size of the choice set.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler’s Fallacy

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We demonstrate that lottery markets can exhibit the "hot-hand" phenomenon, in which past winning numbers tend to have a greater share of the betting proportion in future draws even though past and future events are independent. This is surprising as previous works have instead documented the presence of an opposite effect, the "gambler's fallacy" in the U.S. lottery market. The current literature also suggests that the gambler's fallacy prevails when random numbers are generated by mechanical devices, such as in lottery games. We use two sets of naturally occurring data to show that both the gambler's fallacy and the hot-hand fallacy can exist in different types of lottery games. We then run online experimental studies that mimic lottery games with one, two, or three winning numbers. Our experimental results show that the number of winning prizes impacts behavior. In particular, whereas a single-prize game leads to a strong presence of the gambler's fallacy, we observe a significant increase in hot-hand behavior in multipleprize games with two or three winning numbers.

show abstract

4.3.3 Systems Engineering Implications of Neuroscience Discoveries

McKinney

Contractor

2013

INCOSE International Symp

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Systems engineering practices and heuristics generally reflect implicit assumptions that participants in the systems engineering process behave rationally, and that communications between stakeholders work effectively. Sometimes these assumptions prove accurate, and the systems engineering process is successful. But many times the systems engineering process does not obtain the intended results, even though practitioners and stakeholders have good intentions, extensive knowledge, and impressive skills. Developments in cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics over recent decades offer insights into how and why humans may behave irrationally, and why human communication may not work as intended. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some interesting discoveries in cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics, and discuss their implications for systems engineering. The ContextIntroduction. As a profession, systems engineering has spent the last forty plus years discovering by a combination of trial and error, and thoughtful analyses, how to engineer complex systems. The International Council on Systems Engineering has developed successive editions of a Handbook (Haskins 2011) which summarizes our best understanding of how to successfully execute the systems engineering process. More detailed information is captured in the Guide to the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge, and there is now ISO Standard 15288 on Systems Processes applicable to engineering complex systems. There have also been surveys conducted internally within INCOSE, in collaboration with the Project Management Institute, and by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology which have examined failures in various aspects of systems engineering, and explored possible causes. These efforts, cumulatively, have yielded best practices which significantly improve the likelihood of success in systems engineering endeavors.

show abstract

Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambler's Fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox

Cited by 8 publications

References 13 publications

Small samples and evolution: did the law of small numbers arise as an adaptation to environmental challenges?

Small samples and evolution: did the law of small numbers arise as an adaptation to environmental challenges?

Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler’s Fallacy

4.3.3 Systems Engineering Implications of Neuroscience Discoveries

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About