Population spatial synchrony enhanced by periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing

Haynes, Kyle J.; Walter, Jonathan A.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2018.2828

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Theory predicts that cyclic populations can be synchronised via weak coupling from dispersal or via shared exogenous forcing (Moran effects), in a process known as nonlinear phase locking (Bjørnstad, 2000). Empirical evidence from laboratory experiments (Vasseur and Fox, 2009; Hopson and Fox, 2019) and observational data (Haynes et al ., 2019) support these predictions. Indeed, the lynx‐hare system features cycles thought to be synchronised regionally by phase locking through Moran effects (Stenseth et al ., 1999, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…Deer cycles would not have manifested had deer synchrony not been specific to certain timescales. Timescale specificity in synchrony is now known to be common (Sheppard et al, 2016, 2017, 2019; Walter et al ., 2017; Anderson et al ., 2019; Haynes et al ., 2019). Many past analyses of synchrony have used correlation methods (Liebhold et al ., 2004) that conflate timescales, but this can hinder detection of synchronous phenomena and inferences of drivers of synchrony by obscuring synchrony on some timescales with asynchronous dynamics on other timescales (Sheppard et al ., 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Synchronous periodic components in local weather can nevertheless propogate, via Moran effects, to produce weak, synchronous periodic components in local population dynamics. Timescale‐specific spatial synchrony of populations is probably common (Defriez et al ., 2016; Sheppard et al, 2016, 2017, 2019; Defriz and Reuman, 2017a,b; Walter et al ., 2017; Anderson et al ., 2019; Haynes et al ., 2019). Second, the weak periodic components of local population dynamics, being synchronous across space, reinforce each other in the total regional population, whereas stronger, asynchronous components on other timescales cancel in the spatial total.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synchronous effects produce cycles in deer populations and deer‐vehicle collisions

et al. 2020

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Population cycles are fundamentally linked with spatial synchrony, the prevailing paradigm being that populations with cyclic dynamics are easily synchronised. That is, population cycles help give rise to spatial synchrony. Here we demonstrate this process can work in reverse, with synchrony causing population cycles. We show that timescale‐specific environmental effects, by synchronising local population dynamics on certain timescales only, cause major population cycles over large areas in white‐tailed deer. An important aspect of the new mechanism is specificity of synchronising effects to certain timescales, which causes local dynamics to sum across space to a substantial cycle on those timescales. We also demonstrate, to our knowledge for the first time, that synchrony can be transmitted not only from environmental drivers to populations (deer), but also from there to human systems (deer‐vehicle collisions). Because synchrony of drivers may be altered by climate change, changes to population cycles may arise via our mechanism.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synchronous effects produce cycles in deer populations and deer‐vehicle collisions

et al. 2020

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“…These include spatial differences in population density dependence, and differences in population sensitivities to environmental drivers (Walter et al., 2017). Complex geography is increasingly recognized as a common and important aspect of synchrony (Anderson et al., 2017; Defriez & Reuman, 2017a, 2017b; Gouveia, Bjørnstad, & Tkadlec, 2016; Haynes, Bjørnstad, Allstadt, & Liebhold, 2013; Haynes, Walter, & Liebhold, 2019; Walter et al., 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Micro‐scale geography of synchrony in a serpentine plant community

et al. 2020

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Fluctuations in population abundances are often correlated through time across multiple locations, a phenomenon known as spatial synchrony. Spatial synchrony can exhibit complex spatial structures, termed ‘geographies of synchrony’, that can reveal mechanisms underlying population fluctuations. However, most studies have focused on spatial extents of 10s to 100s of kilometres, making it unclear how synchrony concepts and approaches should apply to dynamics at finer spatial scales. We used network analyses, multiple regression on similarity matrices, and wavelet coherence analyses to examine micro‐scale synchrony and geographies of synchrony, over distances up to 30 m, in a serpentine grassland plant community. We found that species' populations exhibited a geography of synchrony even over such short distances. Often, well‐synchronized populations were geographically separate, a spatial structure that was shaped mainly by gopher disturbance and dispersal limitation, and to a lesser extent by relationships with other plant species. Precipitation was a significant driver of site‐ and community‐wide temporal dynamics. Gopher disturbance appeared to drive synchrony on 2‐ to 6‐year timescales, and we detected coherent fluctuations among pairs of focal plant taxa. Synthesis. Micro‐geographies of synchrony are an intriguing phenomenon that may also help us better understand community dynamics. Additionally, the related geographies of synchrony and coherent temporal dynamics among some species pairs indicate that incorporating interspecific interactions can improve understanding of population spatial synchrony.

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“…In general, spatial synchrony can be caused by responses to regional environmental fluctuations (e.g., climate, predators, and land use) (Fig. 1) and linking of populations via dispersal or by the tuning of density-dependent cycles among nearby populations by these factors (i.e., the Moran effect) (Ripa 2000;Walter et al 2017;Haynes et al 2019). Thus, changing patterns of spatial synchrony in grassland bird populations could reflect changes in the intensity or synchrony of population drivers (e.g., climate and farming activities) (Pearce-Higgins & Gill 2010;Koenig & Liebhold 2016;Allen et al 2020) or to some demographic transition that caused varying sensitivity to them (e.g., crowding or increased dispersal).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Allen

Lockwood

2021

Conservation Biology

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Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2°latitude by 2°longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968-1993 and 1994-2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.

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Population spatial synchrony enhanced by periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing

Cited by 22 publications

References 55 publications

Synchronous effects produce cycles in deer populations and deer‐vehicle collisions

Synchronous effects produce cycles in deer populations and deer‐vehicle collisions

Micro‐scale geography of synchrony in a serpentine plant community

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

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