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A predictive understanding of the ecological impacts of nonnative species has been slow to develop, owing largely to an apparent dearth of clearly defined hypotheses and the lack of a broad theoretical framework. The context dependency of impact has fueled the perception that meaningful generalizations are nonexistent. Here, we identified and reviewed 19 testable hypotheses that explain temporal and spatial variation in impact. Despite poor validation of most hypotheses to date, evidence suggests that each can explain at least some impacts in some situations. Several hypotheses are broad in scope (applying to plants and animals in virtually all contexts) and some of them, intriguingly, link processes of colonization and impact. Collectively, these hypotheses highlight the importance of the functional ecology of the nonnative species and the structure, diversity, and evolutionary experience of the recipient community as general determinants of impact; thus, they could provide the foundation for a theoretical framework for understanding and predicting impact. Further substantive progress toward this goal requires explicit consideration of within‐taxon and across‐taxa variation in the per capita effect of invaders, and analyses of complex interactions between invaders and their biotic and abiotic environments.

Aim  We argue that ‘propagule pressure’, a key term in invasion biology, has been attributed at least three distinct definitions (with usage of a related term causing additional confusion). All of the definitions refer to fundamental concepts within the invasion process, with the result that the distinct importance of these different concepts has been at best diluted, and at worst lost. Location  Global. Methods  We reviewed pertinent literature on propagule pressure to resolve confusion about different uses of the term ‘propagule pressure’ and we introduced a new term for one variant, colonization pressure. We conducted a computer simulation whereby the introduction of species is represented as a simple sampling process to elucidate the relationship between propagule and colonization pressure. Results  We defined colonization pressure as the number of species introduced or released to a single location, some of which will go on to establish a self‐sustaining population and some of which will not. We subsequently argued that colonization pressure should serve as a null hypothesis for understanding temporal or spatial differences in exotic species richness, as the more species that are introduced, the more we should expect to establish. Finally, using a simple simulation, we showed that propagule pressure is related to colonization pressure, but in a non‐linear manner. Main conclusion  We suggest that the nature of the relationship between propagule pressure and colonization pressure, as well as the efficacy of various proxy measures of each, require more detailed exploration if invasion ecology is to continue to develop into a more predictive science.

Theory suggests that introduction effort (propagule size or number) should be a key determinant of establishment success for exotic species. Unfortunately, however, propagule pressure is not recorded for most introductions. Studies must therefore either use proxies whose efficacy must be largely assumed, or ignore effort altogether. The results of such studies will be flawed if effort is not distributed at random with respect to other characteristics that are predicted to influence success. We use global data for more than 600 introduction events for birds to show that introduction effort is both the strongest correlate of introduction success, and correlated with a large number of variables previously thought to influence success. Apart from effort, only habitat generalism relates to establishment success in birds.

We identified emerging scientific, technological, and sociopolitical issues likely to affect how biological invasions are studied and managed over the next two decades. Issues were ranked according to their probability of emergence, pervasiveness, potential impact, and novelty. Top-ranked issues include the application of genomic modification tools to control invasions, effects of Arctic globalization on invasion risk in the Northern Hemisphere, commercial use of microbes to facilitate crop production, the emergence of invasive microbial pathogens, and the fate of intercontinental trade agreements. These diverse issues suggest an expanding interdisciplinary role for invasion science in biosecurity and ecosystem management, burgeoning applications of biotechnology in alien species detection and control, and new frontiers in the microbial ecology of invasions.

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The annual trade in exotic vertebrates as pets is a multi‐billion‐dollar global business. Thousands of species, and tens of millions of individual animals, are shipped both internationally and within countries to satisfy this demand. Most research on the exotic pet trade has focused on its contribution to native biodiversity loss and disease spread. Here, we synthesize information across taxa and research disciplines to document the exotic pet trade's contribution to vertebrate biological invasions. We show recent and substantial worldwide growth in the number of non‐native animal populations introduced via this invasion pathway, which demonstrates a strong potential to increase the number of invasive animals in the future. Key to addressing the invasion threat of exotic pets is learning more about the socioeconomic forces that drive the massive growth in the exotic pet market and the socioecological factors that underlie pet release by owners. These factors likely vary according to cultural pet‐keeping traditions across regions and whether purchases were legal or illegal. These gaps in our understanding of the exotic pet trade must be addressed in order to implement effective policy solutions.