Population Growth and Carbon Emissions

Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

doi:10.3386/w22885

Cited by 19 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The larger the population, the more activities people carry out both distribution and consumption production which ultimately increases CO 2 emissions released. Furthermore, research conducted by Casey and Galor (2018) implied that a population growth of 1% slower can be accompanied by an increase in per capita income of almost 7% while being able to reduce carbon emissions. If the population continues to grow which results in continuous fertilization of carbon emissions, then it increases climate change with the risk of forest fires by the end of 2020 (Knorr et al, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Formal Constraints Reduce Co2 Emissions? Indonesia’s Empirical Case

Darwanto

Santosa

Handayani

et al. 2020

IJEEP

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Rules (formal constraints) are expected to be able to shape human behavior to act based on what should and should not do accordingly. The connection of rules in the energy sector to carbon dioxide emissions depends on how far the rules are able to shape behavior as expected. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of rules (formal constraints) on CO 2 emissions in Indonesia. Other variables used in this study are energy consumptions (fossil energy and renewable energy), and population growth which are in line with the previous study. The method used to help answer the research question is multiple linear regression analysis with ordinary least square approach. Using time series data in the period of 1990-2017 in Indonesia, this study found that fossil energy consumption and population growth have positive and significant impacts on CO 2 emissions in Indonesia. Meanwhile, the consumption of renewable energy and the rules (formal constraints) have negative effects on the emissions of CO 2 produced. These results show that rules (Formal Constraints) can indeed shape behavior, in this case the reduction of CO 2 emissions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Formal Constraints Reduce Co2 Emissions? Indonesia’s Empirical Case

Darwanto

Santosa

Handayani

et al. 2020

IJEEP

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“…While a few studies examine global emission changes using large data (Pani and Mukhopadhyay, 2010), most studies are based on country-level or regional data. Some studies emphasized population as the main factor of emission (Casey and Galor, 2016), while some underlined income as the major driver (Hang and Yuan-sheng, 2011). The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) proposes an inverted U-shaped relation between economic growth and environmental deterioration (Yandle et al, 2007).…”

Section: A Survey Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Emission and sectoral energy intensity: a variance decomposition analysis

Mukhopadhyay¹,

Pani²

2022

MEQ

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PurposeIn the backdrop of growing global concern on escalating CO2 emission leading to climate disorder and controversy between economic growth and environment, this study undertakes a decomposition analysis of the top 20 emitters of the world during 1992–2016 with two objectives: to identify the relative contribution of the major driving factors in CO2 emission and to comprehend the role and performance of sectoral energy consumption pattern in changing the emission level.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses variance analysis method to perform two stage decomposition: first, it decomposes emission into the major driving factors, and, secondly, it also decomposes fossil fuel intensity of different sectors into fuel mix and energy intensity effects, which are new in the literature.FindingsThe results indicate that aggressive pursuit for economic growth, particularly by developing countries, is the major reason behind unprecedented emission growth, with income effect, fossil fuel intensity effect and population effect having substantial roles. Considerable decline in dependence on fossil fuel, coupled with rising emissions, signifies that emission intensity is still to be harnessed. Sectoral decomposition shows that while fossil fuel intensity has declined in residential sector, it has remarkably shot up in industry, transport and commercial sectors. On the other hand, sectoral energy intensity has declined, particularly due to favourable performances of transport and commercial sectors.Research limitations/implicationsThe detailed country-wise sectoral analysis identifies the sectors with favourable contribution in curtailing emission and lends a direction to other countries for policy making.Originality/valueThis study contributes by incorporating multi-country sectoral segregation in decomposition analysis. It focuses not only on energy intensity, but on the effect of energy substitution in each sector as well. It identifies the sectors that have lowered their dependence on fossil fuel to highlight that emission can effectively be dealt with through a prudent choice of fuel mix.

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“…Byrch et al [46] have found the participant maps in promoting business, and accommodating economic growth and development, as the key player in the sustainable development after they revisited the meaning of sustainable development held by New Zealand. In addition, Casey and Galor [47] examined the carbon emissions in terms of their effect of lower fertility. Regardless of its complexity, population policies were found to be part of the approach to tackling global climate change.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting the SEM-VARIMAX Model

Sutthichaimethee¹,

Naluang²

2019

Energies

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This research aims to predict the efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand for the next 17 years (2020–2036) and analyze the relationships among causal factors by applying a structural equation modeling/vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SEM-VARIMAX Model). This model is effective for analyzing relationships among causal factors and optimizing future forecasting. It can be applied to contexts in different sectors, which distinguishes it from other previous models. Furthermore, this model ensures the absence of heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation. In fact, it meets all the standards of goodness of fit. Therefore, it is suitable for use as a tool for decision-making and planning long-term national strategies. With the implementation of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law ( S . D . E L ) , the forecast results derived from the SEM-VARIMAX Model indicate a continuously high change in energy consumption from 2020 to 2036the change exceeds the rate determined by the government. In addition, energy consumption is predicted to have an increased growth rate of up to 185.66% (2036/2020), which is about 397.08 ktoe (2036). The change is primarily influenced by a causal relationship that contains latent variables, namely, the economic factor ( E C O N ) , social factor ( S O C I ) , and environmental factor ( E N V I ) . The performance of the SEM-VARIMAX Model was tested, and the model produced a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.06% and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.19%. A comparison of these results with those of other models, including the multiple linear regression model (MLR), back-propagation neural network (BP model), grey model, artificial neural natural model (ANN model), and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model), indicates that the SEM-VARIMAX model fits and is appropriate for long-term national policy formulation in various contexts in Thailand. This study’s results further indicate the low efficiency of Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand. The predicted result for energy consumption in 2036 is greater than the government-established goal for consumption of no greater than 251.05 ktoe.

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Population Growth and Carbon Emissions

Cited by 19 publications

References 26 publications

Does Formal Constraints Reduce Co2 Emissions? Indonesia’s Empirical Case

Does Formal Constraints Reduce Co2 Emissions? Indonesia’s Empirical Case

Emission and sectoral energy intensity: a variance decomposition analysis

The Efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting the SEM-VARIMAX Model

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