Political Attitudes and Behaviour in a Non-Partisan Environment: Toronto 2014

Abstract

Voting behaviour in municipal elections is understudied in Canada. Existing research is limited by the type of data (aggregate instead of individual-level) and the cases evaluated (partisan when most contests are non-partisan). The objective of this study is to contribute to this literature by using individual-level data about a non-partisan election. To do so, we use data from the Toronto Election Study, conducted during the 2014 election. Our research goals are to evaluate whether a standard approach to understanding vote choice (the multi-stage explanatory model) is applicable in a non-partisan, municipal-level contest, and to determine the correlates of vote choice in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election in particular. Our analysis reveals that, although it was a formally non-partisan contest, voters tended to view the mayoral candidates in both ideological and partisan terms. We also find that a standard vote choice model provides valuable insight into voter preferences at the municipal level.

Turnout in Local Elections: Evidence from Canadian Cities, 2004–2014

“…We have sought to avoid such bias in the presentation of our results below. We believe that the use of our original ecological dataset makes an important contribution to our understanding of turnout in the context of Canadian local elections, in part because individual-level data from surveys at the local level are very rare in Canada (but see McGregor et al, 2016).…”

“…In other cities, slates of candidates bound together by shared ideas are formed. Such coalitions, as well as non-partisan rhetoric, may in fact mask informal linkages to party organizations (Sproule-Jones, 2008), and McGregor and colleagues (2016) demonstrate that voters may conceive of non-partisan local competition as partisan in nature. Milner (1997) argues persuasively that low turnout in Canadian elections can be partially explained by a lack of “integrative” political organizations, particularly parties with organizations that exist at all levels, particularly the municipal level, of the state.…”

Voters Who Abstain: Explaining Abstention and Ballot Roll-Off in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

“…8. Suburban voters have different priorities and preferences than their urban counterparts, and the urban/suburban divide is a major driver of support in Toronto municipal elections (see McGregor, Moore, and Stephenson 2016). Doug Ford, in particular, performed very poorly downtown, as compared with in the periphery of the city.…”

Local election campaign finance regimes in Canada: Toward a research agenda

“…In the absence of parties and party discipline, each candidate is individually responsible for financing his or her own campaign, potentially increasing barriers to entry. Even if nonpartisan candidates are perceived in ideological or partisan terms (McGregor, Moore, and Stephenson 2016), they may be less vulnerable to second‐order effects; that is, their fortunes are less likely to be enhanced or diminished by those of a party leader or by the actions of their party in power at another level of government. In such an environment, individual candidates’ access to financial resources and constraints on their use are likely to matter a great deal to their electoral viability, while also rendering them vulnerable to donor influence.…”