Policy, planning, intelligence and foresight in government organizations

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence (or policy research) functions. Focusing on government agencies, especially those supporting liberal democratic governments, the purpose of the current paper is to propose a new, practical, low-cost and high-return model for implementing a programmatic strategic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence functions. The paper describes the relevant organizational considerations and options for structural adjustments, and suggests how the proposed model can maximize decision-making effectiveness without disrupting pre-existing structures, operations and products. The paper further discusses the necessity and involvement of a central government foresight agency and a non-hierarchical distributed network linking the foresight units. Design/methodology/approach – Possible solutions are considered with respect to costs of development and implementation, risk (likelihood, consequence and uncertainty) of the new function’s failure, direct negative or positive effect on the performance of existing functions, the level of cross-organizational involvement in or collaboration with the new function, the level of cross-organization tangible benefits and the level of vertical involvement, especially at the executive level. Findings – With few exceptions, the implementation of foresight by governments has not been at all methodical, but has followed many different paths, where it has occurred at all. The approach proposed in this paper – establishing a central foresight agency, propagating individual agency-based small programmatic foresight units and virtual teams and creating a non-hierarchical distributed network to link all of them – appears to best meet the success criteria set out in the paper. Research limitations/implications – Governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies that have previously shied away from methodically implementing strategic foresight or that have attempted to do so without real success now have an approach that is likely to produce the desired results. Practical implications – The paper creates a sound framework for governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies to consider and proceed with the implementation of foresight functions and networks to support them. Originality/value – The proposed approach is entirely new and generally challenges current practices.

Anticipatory governance for newcomers: lessons learned from the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, and Korea

“…Despite also having founded the Foresight Programme, they both analyzed the futures domain [ 69 ]. The UK then introduced horizon scanning which can be used by all departments and agencies [ 72 ]. At the beginning, horizon scanning activities in the UK focused on a classical, wide-spectrum analysis of all economic sectors and promising technologies (Delta Scan) and then evolved to more focused approaches such as intelligent infrastructures, tackling obesities, and flood and coastal defense (Sigma Scan) [ 19 , 69 ].…”

“…The UK horizon scanning relied on robust evidence and well-designed, conclusive studies [ 71 ]. It was inevitable that its scanning drew upon the S&T bases because the UK’s scanning function had been under the Office of S&T [ 72 ]. These scanned outcomes were used as basic information, indicators, and a scoping device for specific strategic and forward-looking functions such as scenario building, technology assessment, and strategic foresight.…”

“…The fragmented approach somewhat allowed for more rapid scanning and filled a specific gap in government officials’ understanding of policies. However, this fragmentation resulted in less in-depth scanning activities and the duplication of departmental efforts [ 72 ]. These rather narrow and duplicated outcomes did not provide a reasonably objective foundation for the necessary political process that leads to implementable policies.…”

The Use of the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Tool in Public Institutions: A Systematic Review

“…Strategic planning is a tool that allows the organization to analyze its internal and external environment, systematizes its mission, vision, values, objectives, and strategies, thus creating basic elements for a good performance [15], [16].…”

Knowledge creation and mobility in and through futures workshops

“…Futures knowledge is the interpretation of potential futures gathered and validated in justified ways. A growing body of literature has recognized the importance of, and need for, futures knowledge in decision‐making and everyday life (Pouru et al., 2019; Schmidt, 2015; Van der Steen & Van Twist, 2013; van Dorsser et al., 2018). There are many sources of futures knowledge and many different kinds of futures research methods.…”