Policy implications of climate change impacts on water resources management

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

“…Techniques are therefore being developed to construct probability distributions of specified outcomes, requiring that assumptions be made about the probability distributions of the key drivers of impact uncertainty (e.g., Wilby and Harris, 2006). [WGII 3.6.4] A second approach to coping with uncertainty, referred to as 'adaptive management' (Stakhiv, 1998), involves the increased use of water management measures that are relatively robust to uncertainty. Such tools include measures to reduce the demand for water and have been advocated as a means of minimising the exposure of a system to climate change (e.g., in California: Beuhler, 2003).…”

Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?

“…In the absence of crisp results produced by the science, the concepts of safety factors and precautionary allowances are being envisaged as part of "climate proofing" exercises. This has always been a major part of the water management set of tools, as historically they have dealt with risk and uncertainty in all aspects of their work (Stakhiv, 1998).…”

Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review / Adaptation au changement climatique dans les bassins fluviaux internationaux en Afrique: une revue

“…Warwick et al, 2003). However, the scenario approach can be problematic because different climate models produce a wide range of different scenarios (Stakhiv, 1998) and yet may still underestimate the full range of possibilities, whilst the credibility of individual scenarios is hard to evaluate (Kundzewicz et al, 2007). The use of subjective probabilities, or probability distribution functions, has been experimented with (Kundzewicz et al, 2007), but, according to Olsen (2006), the difficulty of experts reaching agreement on subjective probabilities can be a drawback to this approach.…”

“…Dessai et al (2009) conclude that, given the deep uncertainties in climate prediction and the reality that climate is only one factor influencing adaptation decisions, an approach that avoids heavy reliance on climate prediction and, instead, assesses the robustness of adaptation decisions to a range of plausible futures is preferable. Stakhiv (1998) recommends that a "no-regrets" strategy could be provided by the use of the adaptive management principle for water resource management.…”

“…Institutions and governance structures in the water sector differ significantly both within and between countries (Kundzewicz et al, 2007) and can either facilitate or hinder adaptation by different stakeholders at different scales (Ivey et al, 2004;Naess et al, 2005). Whilst water governance structures in the UK (Tompkins et al, 2009) and the USA (Frederick et al, 1997;Stakhiv, 1998) are able to promote adaptation, in developing countries existing legal frameworks and institutions are often too weak to address the challenges currently faced by the water sector (Levina, 2006). Given that, over the short to medium term, future climate change is likely to exacerbate existing challenges to water resources management (scarcity, flood risk), there are many situations where adaptation will fit closely with current management objectives.…”