Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review / Adaptation au changement climatique dans les bassins fluviaux internationaux en Afrique: une revue

Goulden, Marisa; Conway, Declan; Persechino, Aurelie

doi:10.1623/hysj.54.5.805

Cited by 79 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…Changes in hydrology can also directly affect human health, through mortality (which tends to fall with rising GDP [22], water stress or loss of livelihoods), and hydrological changes are used in estimating potential future millions of people at risk of water stress [23,24]. Similarly persons at risk from fluvial and coastal flooding have been estimated using detailed spatially downscaled projections of future populations [1,25].…”

Section: Types Of Interactions (A) How Impacts In One Sector Could Afmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change

Warren

2011

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4• C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4• C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2• C world. In a 4• C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4• C world. By contrast, a 2 • C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth's forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2• C or a 4• C world.

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Section: Types Of Interactions (A) How Impacts In One Sector Could Afmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change

Warren

2011

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…The decomposition of time series characteristics into a systematic (trend, constant component, periodical fluctuations) and random component, of which the latter is related to the occurrence of a random factor, is a crucial element of research into thermal regime regularity. Long-term fluctuations of flowing water temperature are an identifier of the impact of climatic conditions and the seasonality of processes of river recharge and discharge on its temporal variability [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution Properties of a Measurement Series of River Water Temperature at Different Time Resolution Levels (Based on the Example of the Lowland River Noteć, Poland)

Graf

2018

Water

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The paper investigates the distribution properties of measurement series of river water temperatures for the lowland River Noteć and its tributaries (Western Poland), as well as air temperatures at different data time resolution levels (1987-2013). The aspect of distribution normality was examined in quantile plots, the series' stationarity was assessed with an augmented Dickey-Fuller test, while autocorrelation was studied using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. It was demonstrated that distributions of river water and air temperature series at different levels of analyses are generally close to normal but also display a certain skewness. Both daily temperature measurement series are stationary series. The periodic component accounts for about 93% (water temperature) and 77% (air temperature) of the daily variability of the variable, while the random factor equals 6-7% and 22%, respectively. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model confirmed a clear annual seasonality in temperature distribution and indicated the long memory of the autoregressive process AR (2-4). The temperature prediction performed on the basis of a 4th-order Fourier series is consistent with the course of historical data. In the multiannual period 1987-2013, particularly high maximum temperatures were recorded for the Upper Noteć in the summer half-years (28.4 • C); these are related to anthropogenic factors and increase the threat to the existence of cyprinids and salmonids. The thermal anomalies identified in the River Noteć clearly point to the necessity of intensifying the monitoring of its waters.

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“…There are few meteorological stations in UIB (Archer et al 2010), thus the use of climate model data in a hydrological model is one of the alternatives for use in such an uphill domain. Many studies have used coarse resolution GCMs' output as an input to a hydrological model in order to analyze the effects of future climate change on water resources (Wilby et al 2008, Goulden et al 2009, Allamano et al 2009. However, the coarse horizontal resolution is not able to delineate reliable climatic projections at a regional scale due to the topography (Fu et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan

Ali¹,

Li²,

Fu³

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

127

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This study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) data for the periods of 2041-2050 and 2071-2080 with RCP8.5 are used for climatic projection and, after bias correction, the same data are used as an input to the University of British Columbia (UBC) hydrological model for river flow projections. The projections of all of the future periods were compared with the results of 1976-2005 and with each other. Projections of future changes show a consistent increase in air temperature and precipitation. However, temperature and precipitation increase is relatively slow during 2071-2100 in contrast with 2041-2070. Northern parts are more likely to experience an increase in precipitation and temperature in comparison to the southern parts. A higher increase in temperature is projected during spring and winter over southern parts and during summer over northern parts. Moreover, the increase in minimum temperature is larger in both scenarios for all future periods. Future river flow is projected by both models to increase in the twenty first century (CCAM and RegCM) in both scenarios. However, the rate of increase is larger during the first half while it is relatively small in the second half of the twenty first century in RCP4.5. The possible reason for high river flow during the first half of the twenty first century is the large increase in temperature, which may cause faster melting of snow, while in the last half of the century there is a decreasing trend in river flow, precipitation, and temperature (2071-2100) in comparison to 2041-2070 for RCP4.5. Generally, for all future periods, the percentage of increased river flow is larger in winter than in summer, while quantitatively large river flow was projected, particularly during the summer monsoon. Due to high river flow and increase in precipitation in UIB, water availability is likely to be increased in the twenty first century and this may sustain water demands.

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Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review / Adaptation au changement climatique dans les bassins fluviaux internationaux en Afrique: une revue

Cited by 79 publications

References 107 publications

The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change

The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change

Distribution Properties of a Measurement Series of River Water Temperature at Different Time Resolution Levels (Based on the Example of the Lowland River Noteć, Poland)

Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan

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