Polarity and International Order: Past and Future

Wohlforth, William C.

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-05505-8_21

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 18 publications

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“…Questions about whether the system today is unipolar, bipolar or multipolar remain unsettled (Graeger et al 2022). Moreover, several influential works have questioned the overall usefulness of polarity to assess the multifaceted nature of the international system (Legro 2011;Wohlforth 2022). Some of those scholars even decided to reject the concept altogether, alleging that it is too narrow to grasp the most significant variables that shape international politics (De Keersmaeker 2015; Brooks and Wohlforth 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polarity in the Context of U.S.-China Competition: Reassessing Analytical Criteria

Borges

Lucena²

2023

CEJISS

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How can polarity be used as a pertinent conceptual asset to inform the description of the distribution of military capabilities amongst the most powerful states in the international system today, especially in consideration of U.S.-China competition? Using the military power approach to polarity, this article analyses the literature that emerged in the 2010s to critically examine this concept. In order to enhance the analytical value of polarity and propose verifiable indicators of it, this study draws on Thompson’s lead-sector model as well as Posen’s and Lee and Thompson’s research on the military foundations of polarity. When doing so, we distinguish latent enabling capabilities (as a secondary dimension of polarity) and the actual military power that primarily characterises polarity as a label. When following this operationalisation of polarity, we show that the international system is still unipolar because the U.S. has unmatched global power projection capabilities and first-rate economic and technological might to sustain its military forces. In other words, the current distribution of military capabilities in the system reflects that the contemporary international system is still U.S.-led and unipolar and that China’s rise is still too confined by regional dynamics to constitute a preface of a military-hegemonic rivalry at a global level.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polarity in the Context of U.S.-China Competition: Reassessing Analytical Criteria

Borges

Lucena²

2023

CEJISS

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Leading sectors and polarity change in the context of US–China competition: a process-based analysis of the origins of polarity shift

Borges

2023

Int Polit

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Unipolarity is not over yet

Røren

2024

Global Studies Quarterly

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Scholars, state practitioners, and pundits believe the international system is becoming multipolar. These assessments are wrong. I advance three arguments against this view. First, contemporary polarity is best measured via military capabilities. Wealth and demography should be restricted to indicate latent and not realized power. Second, using a new measure for sophisticated military capabilities, I show that the world is still unipolar. While the United States’ share of capabilities among major powers has dropped in the latter part of the century, it is still by far the most powerful state. Third, a bipolar world is possible, and a multipolar world or a non-polar world is unlikely. If China maintains its meteoric rise, which is far from certain, the next system is likely to be bipolar. The second- and third-tier powers share only a fraction of the major power military capabilities, making multipolarity and non-polarity improbable.

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Polarity and International Order: Past and Future

Cited by 4 publications

References 18 publications

Polarity in the Context of U.S.-China Competition: Reassessing Analytical Criteria

Polarity in the Context of U.S.-China Competition: Reassessing Analytical Criteria

Leading sectors and polarity change in the context of US–China competition: a process-based analysis of the origins of polarity shift

Unipolarity is not over yet

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