Unipolarity is not over yet

Abstract

Scholars, state practitioners, and pundits believe the international system is becoming multipolar. These assessments are wrong. I advance three arguments against this view. First, contemporary polarity is best measured via military capabilities. Wealth and demography should be restricted to indicate latent and not realized power. Second, using a new measure for sophisticated military capabilities, I show that the world is still unipolar. While the United States’ share of capabilities among major powers has dropped in the latter part of the century, it is still by far the most powerful state. Third, a bipolar world is possible, and a multipolar world or a non-polar world is unlikely. If China maintains its meteoric rise, which is far from certain, the next system is likely to be bipolar. The second- and third-tier powers share only a fraction of the major power military capabilities, making multipolarity and non-polarity improbable.