Abstract:RESUMO Recentemente, vários países latino-americanos com inflação alta e vários tipos de desequilíbrios passaram por programas de estabilização da desinflação. O Brasil implementou em julho de 1994 o Plano Real - um experimento de estabilização baseado em taxa de câmbio. Este artigo revisita essa experiência examinando as principais razões do colapso do regime cambial, em janeiro de 1999, sob pontos de vista teóricos alternativos. O que emerge do artigo é a conclusão de que a maioria dos “novos” argumentos apr… Show more
“…According to Falcão Silva (2002), the mainstream understanding of the matter derives from the canonical framework of Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). In these approaches, because of the coexistence of two opposing economic policies—financing public debt with monetary base expansion and a fixed exchange rate regime—speculators foresee a regime change and attack foreign reserves the moment their shadow price exceeds their official one.…”
Section: Currency Crises and Cyclical Crises: Appearance And Essence ...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Still, according to Falcão Silva (2002), in addition to the new-generation models, the contributions of Calvo and Mendoza (1996a, 1996b) and Krugman (1998) deserve special attention. The former authors connect the balance of payments crisis to financial crises.…”
Section: Currency Crises and Cyclical Crises: Appearance And Essence ...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As a response, most of the affected economies adopted stabilization programs that had an exchange rate peg as a common element. In Brazil, after a series of failed attempts, inflation control was achieved through a three-stage plan called the Real Plan (Falcão Silva 2002; Kiguel and Liviatan 1992; Teixeira Lanzana 2017; Giambiagi and Além 2016).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…If, on the one hand, the stabilization plan’s success is unquestionable, then on the other, it appears to be unequivocal to most economists that it was also the cause of the Brazilian late 1990s crisis (Kregel 1999; Schwartsman 1999; Saad-Filho and Morais 2002; Saad-Filho and Mollo 2002; Giambiagi and Além 2016; Giambiagi et al 2021). In both the mainstream and part of the heterodoxy, this understanding derives from the currency crisis or balance of payments crisis theories (Falcão Silva 2002).…”
We revisit the recent past of the Brazilian economy in an attempt to present an alternative characterization of the nature of the late 1990s crisis. The theoretical basis of this analysis is Marxian political economy. This choice is justified by the contraposition between the Marxian theory of overproduction cyclical crisis and the most popular currency crisis theories, revealing that while the latter focus on the phenomenon’s appearance, the former analyzes it in depth. The analysis of capital accumulation during Brazil’s Real Plan shows that the examined crisis can be characterized as another manifestation of the aforementioned phenomenon: the overproduction cyclical crisis. JEL Classification: B51, E32, N16
“…According to Falcão Silva (2002), the mainstream understanding of the matter derives from the canonical framework of Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984). In these approaches, because of the coexistence of two opposing economic policies—financing public debt with monetary base expansion and a fixed exchange rate regime—speculators foresee a regime change and attack foreign reserves the moment their shadow price exceeds their official one.…”
Section: Currency Crises and Cyclical Crises: Appearance And Essence ...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Still, according to Falcão Silva (2002), in addition to the new-generation models, the contributions of Calvo and Mendoza (1996a, 1996b) and Krugman (1998) deserve special attention. The former authors connect the balance of payments crisis to financial crises.…”
Section: Currency Crises and Cyclical Crises: Appearance And Essence ...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As a response, most of the affected economies adopted stabilization programs that had an exchange rate peg as a common element. In Brazil, after a series of failed attempts, inflation control was achieved through a three-stage plan called the Real Plan (Falcão Silva 2002; Kiguel and Liviatan 1992; Teixeira Lanzana 2017; Giambiagi and Além 2016).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…If, on the one hand, the stabilization plan’s success is unquestionable, then on the other, it appears to be unequivocal to most economists that it was also the cause of the Brazilian late 1990s crisis (Kregel 1999; Schwartsman 1999; Saad-Filho and Morais 2002; Saad-Filho and Mollo 2002; Giambiagi and Além 2016; Giambiagi et al 2021). In both the mainstream and part of the heterodoxy, this understanding derives from the currency crisis or balance of payments crisis theories (Falcão Silva 2002).…”
We revisit the recent past of the Brazilian economy in an attempt to present an alternative characterization of the nature of the late 1990s crisis. The theoretical basis of this analysis is Marxian political economy. This choice is justified by the contraposition between the Marxian theory of overproduction cyclical crisis and the most popular currency crisis theories, revealing that while the latter focus on the phenomenon’s appearance, the former analyzes it in depth. The analysis of capital accumulation during Brazil’s Real Plan shows that the examined crisis can be characterized as another manifestation of the aforementioned phenomenon: the overproduction cyclical crisis. JEL Classification: B51, E32, N16
“…O Plano Real foi bem sucedido no controle da inflação, mas a gestão macroeconômica deixou dois problemas se agravarem: um desequilíbrio externo crescente e uma crise fiscal. O desequilíbrio externo se dava principalmente por conta do grande aumento das importações, em consequência da âncora cambial, estabelecida no cerne do plano, e da queda das exportações que não acompanhavam essa expansão (SILVA, 2002).…”
The objective of this study is to analyze the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil, more precisely in the context of monetary and fiscal dominances through a theoretical and empirical analysis. The two policies are directly related, and a possible conflict between the two would be able to generate damage to the economic health of the country. An analysis of the theoretical literature that explains the main theories on the issue of dominances is made. The monetary dominance implies a surplus to keep constant the debt / GDP ratio. In fiscal dominance, the tax authority sets its performance regardless of its budget, announcing possible deficits and surpluses. There is currently no consensus on which of the two authorities is active and which is passive for the Brazilian case. In order to verify which of the two policies is dominant two methods were used, one based on the analysis by estimating models auto regressive of distributed lags (ARDL) and another involving the estimation of a structural auto regressive vector (SVAR) using monthly data for the period 2003-2013 priority for the Public Sector Net Debt (DLSP), public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR) and Selic rate. The causal analysis and response functions to impulses on the structural VAR, indicated that there is impairment of the tax authority to the level of public debt, leading to the conclusion that Brazil is in a monetary dominance regime.
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