Perspectives on flood management in the Rhine and Meuse rivers

Abstract

Flood management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best management strategy? Moreover, flood management cannot be considered independently from other river functions such as nature, agriculture, inland navigation and landscape values. This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. In the present project a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural theory. The focus of the study was on flood risk management. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view of the future, together with the corresponding water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, where these both match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies. The scenario analyses demonstrate that-at the scale of the entire Rhine basin-the influence of climate change on extreme floods is much stronger than the influence of land use changes. Flood risk management in the lower river deltas should not fully rely on flood mitigation measures in the upstream basin. It also becomes clear that no flood risk management strategy is superior in all respects and in all circumstances and that safety versus societal costs is really a policy dilemma: win-win situations cannot always be attained. Under changing climate conditions, the present-day type of management in the lower river reaches runs the risk of becoming an expensive attempt to fully control flood risk problems, while trying to avoid real choices, without actually solving the problems in a long-term view.

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

“…Within this school of computational scenario-based approaches, it is common to use a small set of (two to four) scenarios for one or two projection years to design (static) robust plans (plans that will do well no matter which of the scenarios actually occurs) (e.g., [70,71]). In the context of supporting adaptive planning, this computational scenario-based approach can be further extended.…”

Urban Wetlands and Riparian Forests as a Nature-Based Solution for Climate Change Adaptation in Cities and Their Surroundings

“…The revitalisation of large and smaller rivers and thus a continuous and more natural inflow and distribution of rainfall water in a larger area have been shown to improve protection against horrible flood events along rivers and coasts ( Fig. 7.3; Middelkoop et al 2004;Krysanova et al 2008). A restoration of the (remnant) riparian vegetation would assist in reconnecting rivers with floodplains and to provide greater instream ecosystem complexity, particularly in urban areas (see examples in Fig.…”

Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe)

“…Booij 2005;Bultot et al 1988Bultot et al , 1990De Wit et al 2001;Gellens and Roulin 1998;Middelkoop et al 2004;Van Deursen and Middelkoop 2001), as a result of higher winter precipitation totals (e.g. Booij 2005;Bultot et al 1988Bultot et al , 1990De Wit et al 2001, 2007bGellens and Roulin 1998;Giorgi and Coppola 2007;Kwadijk and Rotmans 1995;Van den Hurk et al 2006).…”

“…For the summer halfyear and summer season, hydrological modelling results show more inter-model and inter-scenario variation (e.g. De Wit et al 2001;Gellens and Roulin 1998;Können 1999;Middelkoop et al 2004). This variation can be explained to a large degree by differences between the climate scenarios and climate models used; for the summer period, climate modelling results still show a wide range of future possibilities.…”

“…Future climate change is expected to have major impacts on river discharge (Kundzewicz et al 2007), and hence many modelling studies have been carried out to assess the potential changes in Meuse discharge and flood frequency in the twenty-first century (e.g. Booij 2005;Bultot et al 1988Bultot et al , 1990De Wit et al 2001, 2007bGellens 1991;Gellens and Roulin 1998;Middelkoop et al 2004;Middelkoop 2001, 2002).…”