Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Walker, Warren E.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Kwakkel, Jan H.

doi:10.3390/su5030955

Cited by 455 publications

(364 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…In this context, scenario discovery is used to identify the combination of uncertainties under which a candidate policy performs poorly, the vulnerabilities of a candidate policy, allowing for the iterative improvement of this policy. The use of scenario discovery for Robust Decision Making suggests that it could also be used in other planning approaches that design plans based on an analysis of the conditions under which a plan fails to meet its goals [40] 3 A global container shipping model…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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“…Comparing several approaches for adaptive planning and decision-making rooted in Assumption-Based Planning (APB), Walker et al (2013) outline that the contribution and scope of ABP is rather to prevent an existing plan from failing than to create a new plan. SEA is a procedure conceived to achieve both these goals, since it develops contemporarily to a plan's process, while promoting the consideration of alternatives that can deliver more feasible and more sustainable plan's outcomes.…”

Section: From Adaptive Approaches To Policy-making To Adaptive and Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SEA is a procedure conceived to achieve both these goals, since it develops contemporarily to a plan's process, while promoting the consideration of alternatives that can deliver more feasible and more sustainable plan's outcomes. Each of the adaptive planning approaches developed by Walker et al (2013) has the potential to contribute to deliver better SEA protocols. However, some of them display more affinity with the current framework of SEA goals and features.…”

Section: From Adaptive Approaches To Policy-making To Adaptive and Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adaptive Policy Making (APM) and Robust Decision Making (RDM) go one step back from other ABP approaches, since they do not move from the assumption that a plan exist but rather contribute the first design of the plan to be examined (Walker et al 2013). This draws a similarity between SEA and the processes underlying APM and RDM, which begin with 'scoping' or 'stage setting' and move throughout assembling a plan and appraising it to deliver a 'plot of expected outcomes' or 'trigger responses' Hall et al 2012).…”

Section: From Adaptive Approaches To Policy-making To Adaptive and Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) conceived by Walker et al (2013) combine several approaches grounded in ABP by proposing a framework that begins with the definition of goals and ends with monitoring the plan's outcomes. This represents an advanced framework suitable for the development of dynamic adaptive plans, a goal that SEA has the potential to trigger whereas adaptive SEA protocols are in place.…”

Section: From Adaptive Approaches To Policy-making To Adaptive and Itmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A limits-oriented approach to sustainable planning assessments: a comparative analysis of South East Queensland (Australia) and Lombardia (Italy)

Baresi¹

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Sustainable development is one of the key issues facing human survival on this planet. The urban planning discipline is actively involved in fostering more feasible ways to structure human activities and their relationship with the global ecosystem's finite resources. Since sustainability has become a major issue for human kind, sustainability assessments have proliferated in different ways to integrate socio-economic prosperity and provide environmental safeguards. In theory, these assessments can contribute towards addressing the increasing threats posed by climate change and by the depletion of natural resources, by building consensus around shared strategies involving a wide range of stakeholders to address national and international sustainable development goals. In practice however, sustainability assessments are undermined by problems associated with first the policy-making processes (for example, stakeholders' involvement) and second the measurement of the impacts of policies, plans and programs (such as the definition and computation of sustainability indicators). These issues weaken community trust in sustainability assessments and reduce their efficacy. Critical research is required to explore viable solutions.The main goal of this thesis is to address the shortcomings of current procedures for sustainability assessment. A comparative case study explores differences and similarities between an Australian region (South East Queensland) and an Italian region (Lombardia), which are representative of different institutional and planning backgrounds. Methodologically, this thesis develops and applies a framework to understand how limitations within political and societal processes prevent the achievement of environmentally sustainable planning. This framework combines a 'limits-oriented approach to evolutionary ecology' (Sih & Gleeson 1995) transposed to governance and policy-making processes, and the need to pursue a sustainable use of finite natural resources as suggested by positions addressing the 'limits to growth' by Meadows et al. (1972).Overall, this thesis develops an approach to diagnose current obstacles that need to be overcome and the pathway for achieving institutionalised limits-oriented approaches for improving procedures of sustainability assessment. This 'limits-oriented' framework outlines the benefits that South East Queensland and Lombardia can achieve by optimising current practices for sustainable planning within their regional contexts. This approach explores the limiting traits that undermine the performance of sustainability assessments, and proposes ways to bridge the gaps that separate their theoretical conceptualisation from their practical implementation.The framework developed and tested through this thesis offers an analytical lens to examine how the assessment of sustainable planning is currently featured in different institutional contexts. Its experimental implementation in countries with different planning traditions provides an insight on iii how to overcome iss...

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Adaptive, multiobjective optimal sequencing approach for urban water supply augmentation under deep uncertainty

Beh

Maier

Dandy

2015

Water Resources Research

100

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Optimal long-term sequencing and scheduling play an important role in many water resources problems. The optimal sequencing of urban water supply augmentation options is one example of this. In this paper, an adaptive, multiobjective optimal sequencing approach for urban water supply augmentation under deep uncertainty is introduced. As part of the approach, optimal long-term sequence plans are updated at regular intervals and trade-offs between the robustness and flexibility of the solutions that have to be fixed at the current time and objectives over the entire planning horizon are considered when selecting the most appropriate course of action. The approach is demonstrated for the sequencing of urban water supply augmentation options for the southern Adelaide water supply system for two assumed future realities. The results demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach, as it is able to identify optimal sequences that perform better than those obtained using static approaches.

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Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Cited by 455 publications

References 81 publications

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

A limits-oriented approach to sustainable planning assessments: a comparative analysis of South East Queensland (Australia) and Lombardia (Italy)

Adaptive, multiobjective optimal sequencing approach for urban water supply augmentation under deep uncertainty

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