This paper establishes a model of likely campaign effectiveness, before examining the intensity of constituency campaigning at the 2010 General Election in Britain and its subsequent impact on electoral outcomes, using both aggregate and individual level data. It shows that constituency campaigning yielded benefits in varying degrees for all three main parties and that Labour's constituency campaign efforts were effective despite the electoral context, and ultimately affected the overall outcome of the election. These findings have significant implications for our understanding of the circumstances under which campaigns are likely to be more or less effective, and provide further evidence that a carefully managed campaign stands the most chance of delivering tangible electoral payoffs.Keywords: Campaigning; Political Parties; 2010 General Election; Britain; Campaign Management; Electoral Impact
Introduction -The growing importance and potential for campaign effectsIn studies of the past few elections, a broad consensus has developed to suggest that election campaigning may be electorally effective in Britain (Clarke et al, 2004(Clarke et al, , 2009Whiteley & Seyd, 1994;Pattie, et al., 1995;Denver et al., 2003). Indeed, there are several contextual effects that heighten the potential for campaign payoffs. First, the strength of partisan identification in Britain has declined in intensity, and to a lesser extent in overall volume though the core of fairly strong partisans has remained relatively constant (see Figure 1). Secondly, voter hesitancy has increased (see Figure 2). In 2010, fully 37% of respondents to the British Election Study post-election survey indicated that they had made their decision on how to vote during the campaign, with a further 13% indicating that their decision had been taken since the turn of the year. Given that all parties engage in 'longterm' campaigning -especially in target seats (Fisher & Denver, 2008) -there would appear to be significant potential at least for constituency campaigning to be electorally significant.
1.1In this paper we seek to measure the electoral impact of the three main British parties' campaigns at the 2010 election (Conservative, Labour and the Liberal Democrats).Aggregate data are drawn from a survey of all electoral agents of the five major parties in Great Britain -the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party (N=1,993). 2 1,079 valid responses were received -an overall response rate of 54%. Details of responses by party are shown in the Appendix. These illustrate a representative spread of constituencies. In order to confirm this, however, means were compared in respect of candidate spending (percentage of maximum spent) during the regulated long and short campaigns. For all parties, the results indicate that our sample is robust (see Appendix). In addition, in depth interviews were conducted with the parties at national level, as well as with agents in constituencies selected on the basis of their elec...