Peramalan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (Ipm) Kabupaten Bojonegoro Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown

Farida, Yuniar; Sulistiani, Diah Ayu; Ulinnuha, Nurissaidah

doi:10.25157/teorema.v6i2.5521

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Farida et al forecasted the Human Development Index (IPM) in Bojonegoro Regency using Brown's DES method using training data in the form of HDI data in Bojonegoro Regency for 10 years, namely from 2010 to 2020. The results of this study stated that the parameter value α = 0.7 and the MAPE value = 0.376% produce the best forecasting results [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Comparison of the Accuracy of Brown's and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing in LQ45 Stock Price Forecasting

Santosa,

Chrismanto,

Raharjo

2024

IJITCSA

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As of May 2022, 787 stocks are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the number of stock indices in Indonesia to date is 38. One interesting and important stock index is the LQ45 index. Because this index is a very important reference index for investors, this research data focuses on stocks in the LQ45 index. There are two essential things in the forecasting process: the data and the right forecasting method. Two forecasting methods that can be used are Brown and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). This study examines two methods with the lowest accuracy error in forecasting the LQ45 stock price data. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used to measure the accuracy of the error. The analysis methods used to compare the MAPE of the two methods are the F test for variance similarity, Boxplot, t-test to test paired means with different cases of variance, and Wilcoxon signed rank test to test paired means nonparametric statistics. The result is that the MAPE average with Holt's DES method is smaller than the average MAPE with Brown's DES method. This is supported by the t-test for paired means with different cases of variance and also supported by the Wilcoxon signed exact rank test. Meanwhile, the MAPE standard deviation with Holt's DES method is smaller than the MAPE standard deviation with Brown's DES method. This is supported by the F test to test the variance similarity and is visually supported by a Boxplot diagram. From this study, LQ45 stocks with the smallest MAPE value accuracy are ICBP stocks. In general, based on the MAPE value, Holt's DES method is better than Brown's DES method in predicting the prices of stocks in the LQ45 index.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Comparison of the Accuracy of Brown's and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing in LQ45 Stock Price Forecasting

Santosa,

Chrismanto,

Raharjo

2024

IJITCSA

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“…Berbeda dengan DES, pemulusan kurva dengan TES digunakan untuk pola data yang berbentuk kuadratik, kubik atau berorde tinggi [24]- [29]. Berikut adalah persamaan matematis untuk pemulusan triple exponential smoothing: [30,31] :…”

Section: Metode Tesunclassified

Comparison between Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods for Forecasting Poverty Rate of Yahukimo Regency in 2025-2030

2023

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Currently, the government faces so many issues, one of which is poverty. However, it is not a new thing since many other countries also face this classic issue. Poverty, from an economic point of view, is measured by the people's inability to meet basic needs for food, not food in terms of expenditure. Based on data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) regarding poverty rates in Indonesia, several areas are included in the highest poverty rates including East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, Gorontalo and Papua. The poverty rates for this region are 21.21%, 17.99%, and 15.99%, respectively. In this regard, Papua has the highest poverty rate of the three provinces. According to BPS, the three poorest districts in Papua Province in 2017 included Deiyai Regency at 43.63%, Intan Jaya Regency at 42.23% and Yahukimo Regency at 39.33%. This study aimed to predict the poverty rate of Yahukimo district in 2025-2030. This research employed Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing methods. It used secondary data, namely data related to the poverty rate in Yahukimo Regency in percent (%) in 2003-2019. The results showed that the poverty rate data in 2025-2030 were 36.48%, 36.09%, 35.7%, 35.31%, 34.92% and 34.53% respectively. In other words, the poverty rate in Yahukimo Regency had decreased compared to previous years.

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“…Double Exponential Smoothing Brown adalah metode peramalan yang digunakan dalam analisis data berderet waktu. Metode ini seringkali digunakan pada data dengan pola trend dengan tidak mempertimbangkan nilai musiman [9]. Metode ini dirancang untuk meramalkan data berderet waktu dengan tren yang linier dan juga mampu menangani data yang memiliki komponen musiman atau siklus yang teratur.…”

Section: Metode Penelitianunclassified

Implementasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin

Ngabidin,

Sanwidi,

Arini

2023

Euler J. Ilm. Mat. Sains dan Teknol.

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The poor population is a group of people who have limited economic resources sufficient to meet their basic needs. Based on the Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Blitar, the Blitar Regency has seen an increase in poor people over the past three years. This is proven by the poverty presentation from 2019 to 2021, which has increased to 8.94, 9.33, and 9.65. This research predicts the number of poor people in Blitar Regency using Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing method. The results of calculating the best error values obtained from this research, MAD is 4.95, MSE is 49.47, and MAPE is 3.79. The error value calculation is obtained when the alpha error parameter = 0.7. The results of forecasting with Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing method on the number of poor people in Blitar Regency for the period 2023 to 2027 is as follows: Year 2023 amounting to 100.07259, in 2024 amounting to 96.52018, in 2025 amounting to 92.96777, in 2026 amounting89.42536, and in 2027 amounting 85.86295. Based on the results obtained, it is hoped that this forecasting can help the government determine appropriate policies to improve the welfare of the people of Blitar Regency.

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Peramalan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (Ipm) Kabupaten Bojonegoro Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown

Cited by 6 publications

References 17 publications

Comparison of the Accuracy of Brown's and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing in LQ45 Stock Price Forecasting

Comparison of the Accuracy of Brown's and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing in LQ45 Stock Price Forecasting

Comparison between Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods for Forecasting Poverty Rate of Yahukimo Regency in 2025-2030

Implementasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin

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