Pension Reform with Variable Retirement Age - A Simulation Analysis for Germany

Fehr, Hans; Kallweit, Manuel; Kindermann, Fabian

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1625789

Cited by 31 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Similarly, Fehr et al, (2012), found that increasing retirement age in Germany will delay the retirement effective by 1 year, he also found that an increase in the benefits of actuarial adjustment would lead to better results. Another research effort focused on the employees' retirement readiness and proposed reliable suggestions and indexes.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 93%

Financial Planning and Measures among Saudi Nationals-An Empirical Study

AlNemer¹

2018

IRMBR

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 93%

Financial Planning and Measures among Saudi Nationals-An Empirical Study

AlNemer¹

2018

IRMBR

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“…In a richer model environment that focuses on country-specific features, assumptions can be made or behaviour can be modelled to show how increases in the statutory retirement age and savings decisions will affect the average length of working life. From such estimates, it is possible to back out the increases in the number of people working, and to relate this number to the number of pensioners (see, e.g., Martín 2010;Fehr et al 2012;Staubli and Zweimüller 2013;Lassila et al 2014).…”

Section: Scenario 3: Longer Working Livesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts

Barslund¹,

Werder²

2017

Populationyearbook

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It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Compared to the older people of today, future older generations will be in better health, and will likely work longer. However, strictly from a public finance perspective, the extent to which the DDRs capture the challenges that stem from ageing depends on future changes in the age structure of the population, in behavioural patterns, and in age-related public transfers. Combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data (i.e., data on age-specific public transfers), we construct a 'transferbased' demographic dependency ratio for seven European countries up to 2050. We then compare the quantitative impact of the transfer-based DDR with that of the traditional DDR for three different policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing, and longer working lives. This is done by linking agespecific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge. First, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied, and substantially so for some countries, such as Austria, Finland, and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing (i.e., keeping health transfers constant for a given mortality rate) has a modest effect on public finances, except in the case of Sweden, where it plays an important role. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is captured well by the traditional DDR measure if the common assumption that immigrants are similar to natives is maintained. The immediate to short-term impact of immigration tends to be overstated by the traditional DDR measure. Finally, increasing the average * Mikkel Christoffer Barslund (corresponding author), Centre for European Policy Studies, Place du Congrès,

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“…26 More details are shown in Appendix: Table 20. 27 Following (Auberbach and Kotlikoff 1987) and (Fehr et al 2012). 28 Urban populations accounts for 90% of the total population of Argentina, so the survey gives a good representation of the country.…”

Section: Endnotesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pension schemes and labor supply in the formal and informal sector

Ceni

2017

IZA J Labor Policy

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This paper analyzes the participation path of workers in the formal and informal sectors throughout their lives and their pension eligibilities, as well as how the social security scheme can change the aforementioned participation path. High levels of informality have impacts on the benefits that workers receive, especially their pension benefits. I use Argentinean panel data from 1995 to 2008 to construct a structural discrete choice model which estimates the population's labor path and their pension eligibilities. I find evidence that low-educated workers have difficulties to obtain a pension by the age of 65 and even by age 70. Policy experiments show that if the parameters are fixed as in the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) model, there is a slight reduction in the years worked in the formal sector and the percentage of workers who obtain a Full pension. If the pension requirements (minimum age and years contributing) are stricter, there is an increase in the years spent in the formal sector but it is not sufficient to achieve the benchmark level of pension coverage. If the requirements are looser, there is a reduction in the amount of time spent in formality to contribute up to the new threshold.

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Pension Reform with Variable Retirement Age - A Simulation Analysis for Germany

Cited by 31 publications

References 36 publications

Financial Planning and Measures among Saudi Nationals-An Empirical Study

Financial Planning and Measures among Saudi Nationals-An Empirical Study

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts

Pension schemes and labor supply in the formal and informal sector

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