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AbstractLike in many other OECD countries, the population will age rapidly in Germany during the next decades. This undermines the future sustainability of the current unfunded public pension system and motivates the search for reform options. The present paper aimes to evaluate some currently discussed pension reform proposals. The numerical analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for rising life expectancy and declining fertility in order to replicate the demographic transition in Germany. Given the current unfunded pension system, the model rst calculates a baseline path of the economy. Then it compares the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and e ciency e ects of various reform measures such a s partial funding and tax nanced minimum pensions. JEL Classi cation: H55, J26
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.
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The developed word stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. The fiscal implications of these two demographic trends are alarming. Paying promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll tax rates. This paper asks if there is a silver lining in this dark cloud hanging over the developed world. Specifically, can the developed economies hope to be bailed out by either macroeconomic feedback effects of by increased migration? To address these questions, this paper develops and simulates a dynamic, intergeneration, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions-the U.S., the EU, and Japan-which exchange goods and capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intracohort heterogeneity.
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