Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractLike in many other OECD countries, the population will age rapidly in Germany during the next decades. This undermines the future sustainability of the current unfunded public pension system and motivates the search for reform options. The present paper aimes to evaluate some currently discussed pension reform proposals. The numerical analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for rising life expectancy and declining fertility in order to replicate the demographic transition in Germany. Given the current unfunded pension system, the model rst calculates a baseline path of the economy. Then it compares the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and e ciency e ects of various reform measures such a s partial funding and tax nanced minimum pensions. JEL Classi cation: H55, J26

Social security with rational and hyperbolic consumers

“…First, if the unfunded pension system is intragenerational fair, the labor-leisure distortion cannot be reduced by privatization as long as the tax structure is not altered. Second, improving (reducing) the link between benefits and contributions increases (reduces) economic efficiency, see for example Kotlikoff (1996) or Fehr (2000).…”

Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany

“…We follow Fehr (2000) and derive these asset endowments from a simulation of an artificial steady state.…”

“…Previous contributions such as Fehr (2000), Hirte (2002) and Börsch-Supan et al (2003) have already applied the latter model to German pension reform issues. However, these studies are typically based on a specific ( " deterministic") population forecast with certain values for future fertility, mortality and immigration rates.…”

Demographic change and bank profitability: empirical evidence from German savings banks

“…So far, the economics literature has mostly focused on the macroeconomic impact of demographic changes. In particular, the impact on public pension schemes [e.g., Casamatta et al (2001), Demange and Laroque (1999), Fehr (2000)], on inflation Malmberg (1998, 2000)], on labour markets [e.g. Boersch-Supan (2003), Henschel et al (2008)], on publicly provided goods [e.g., Borge and Rattsø (2008), Cattaneo and Wolter (2009), Montén and Thum (2009)] and on capital markets [e.g., Abel (2001), Boersch-Supan et al (2002), Krueger and Ludwig (2007), Miles (1999), Poterba (2001Poterba ( , 2004] has been extensively studied.…”