Past and future climatic indicators for distribution patterns and conservation planning of temperate coniferous forests in southwestern China

Dakhil, Mohammed A.; Xiong, Qinli; Farahat, Emad A.; Zhang, Lin; Pan, Kaiwen; Pandey, Bipin; Olatunji, Olusanya Abiodun; Tariq, Akash; Wu, Xiaogang; Zhang, Aiping; Tan, Xianjun; Huang, Dan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105559

Cited by 53 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Warming can indirectly affect diversity through ecological factors such as by altering species interactions or through the plant canopy (Farrer et al, ). Our data agree with the numerous studies citing precipitation and latitude as important for the dynamics of plant diversity (Dakhil et al, ; Mykrä et al, ). Specifically, we found precipitation and latitude consistently important in all three models (Figure ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…This may be due to the delayed response of perennial trees to temperature changes (Xiong et al, ). Moreover, it has been found that trees and plant communities in montane forests are not sensitive to temperature changes over a 10,000‐year time scale (Dakhil et al, ), indicating that warming is not the most important factor affecting plants, especially perennials. The tree canopy directly affected the species richness and abundance of trees, while other functional traits had no significant direct impact on plant diversity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is a refuge to diverse wildlife and plant species, as well as home to more than 30% of the wild giant panda population (State Forestry Administration, ). In fact, the region is within one of the world's top 34 biodiversity hotspots (Bellard et al, ) and one of the Global 200 Ecoregions defined by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) (Dakhil et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Montane forests are characterized by high topographic variability in a small area; this variability includes topographical factors such as elevation, slope inclination, and ground surface texture (Andrus, Harvey, Rodman, Hart, & Veblen, ). In addition, the vegetation in montane forests is highly sensitive to climate change with multiple functional traits (Dakhil et al, ; Xiong et al, ). Because of these abiotic and biotic differences, plant diversity might vary in terms of their responses to multiple drivers, especially when studied as a network of indirect and direct drivers of diversity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Direct and indirect effects of environmental factors, spatial constraints, and functional traits on shaping the plant diversity of montane forests

Xiong

Luo

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Understanding the relative importance of the factors driving the patterns of biodiversity is a key research topic in community ecology and biogeography. However, the main drivers of plant species diversity in montane forests are still not clear. In addition, most existing studies make no distinction between direct and indirect effects of environmental factors and spatial constraints on plant biodiversity. Using data from 107 montane forest plots in Sichuan Giant Panda habitat, China, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of abiotic environmental factors, spatial constraints, and plant functional traits on plant community diversity. Our results showed significant correlations between abiotic environmental factors and trees (r = .10, p value = .001), shrubs (r = .19, p value = .001), or overall plant diversity (r = .18, p value = .001) in montane forests. Spatial constraints also showed significant correlations with trees and shrubs. However, no significant correlations were found between functional traits and plant community diversity. Moreover, the diversity (richness and abundance) of shrubs, trees, and plant communities was directly affected by precipitation, latitude, and altitude. Mean annual temperature (MAT) had no direct effect on the richness of tree and plant communities. Further, MAT and precipitation indirectly affected plant communities via the tree canopy. The results revealed a stronger direct effect on montane plant diversity than indirect effect, suggesting that single-species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate factors in these communities.The shifting of tree canopy coverage might be a potential indicator for trends of plant diversity under climate change. S U PP O RTI N G I N FO R M ATI O NAdditional supporting information may be found online in the Supporting Information section.How to cite this article: Li T, Xiong Q, Luo P, Zhang Y, Gu X, Lin B. Direct and indirect effects of environmental factors, spatial constraints, and functional traits on shaping the plant diversity of montane forests.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Direct and indirect effects of environmental factors, spatial constraints, and functional traits on shaping the plant diversity of montane forests

Xiong

Luo

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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“…A. recurvata was expected to show a trend of westward migration under both climate change scenarios; A. squamata , A. georgei and A. forrestii were expected to migrate relatively uniformly westward under the RCP 8.5 scenario and northward under the RCP 4.5 scenario; and A. faxoniana , as well as A. ernestii, were expected to migrate northward under both climate change scenarios (Figure ). Our projection on species westward migration was supported by Chhetri et al () and Dakhil et al () who both found that this westward trend exists in cold coniferous forest on the QTP. At the same time, Gao et al, () used a dynamic global vegetation model to simulate the vegetation distribution on the QTP and suggested that coniferous forests would gradually expand westward to replace herbaceous plants under the RCP 8.5 scenario by the end of this century.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Liao

Zhang

Nobis

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location The mountains of Southwest China. Methods We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

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Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China

Liu,

Chen,

Sun

2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution, particularly of montane species. Species may respond to climate change by shifting their range to higher elevations. The southeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Hengduan Mountains are considered as global biodiversity hotspots. However, information on the response of maple species to climate change in these regions was limited. Therefore, we selected two maple species that occur there and assessed changes in their habitat suitability under past, present and future climate scenarios in Biomod2. The results showed that temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most critical factor influencing their potential distributions. The distribution of potentially suitable habitat for Acer caesium and Acer stachyophyllum was predicted to be larger during the LGM compared to the present. Under the current climate scenario, the largest areas of potentially suitable habitat for these species were mainly located in southeastern Tibet, the Hengduan Mountains in northwestern Yunnan and western Sichuan, the Qinling‐Daba Mountains in southern Gansu and the Wumeng‐Daliang Mountains in northeastern Yunnan, western Guizhou and southeastern Sichuan. Under future climate change scenarios, the predicted loss of suitable habitat areas for these two species ranged from 13.78% to 45.71% and the increase ranged from 18.88% to 57.98%, with an overall increasing trend. The suitable habitat areas were predicted to shift towards the eastern parts of the QTP under both the pessimistic and optimistic future climate change scenarios in the 2050s and the 2070s, which became evident as global warming intensified, particularly in the eastern QTP and the Hengduan Mountains. Our results highlight the possibility that the diverse topography along altitudinal gradients in the QTP and the Hengduan Mountains may potentially mitigate the range contraction of mountain plants in response to climate warming. These findings provide a basis for planning conservation areas, planting and species conservation in the mountainous areas of southern China under the anticipated global warming.

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Past and future climatic indicators for distribution patterns and conservation planning of temperate coniferous forests in southwestern China

Cited by 53 publications

References 52 publications

Direct and indirect effects of environmental factors, spatial constraints, and functional traits on shaping the plant diversity of montane forests

Direct and indirect effects of environmental factors, spatial constraints, and functional traits on shaping the plant diversity of montane forests

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China

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