Participatory scenarios for restoring European landscapes show a plurality of nature values

Abstract

Large-scale ecological restoration is crucial for effective biodiversity conservation and combating climate change. However, perspectives on the goals and values of restoration are highly diverse, as are the different approaches to restoration e.g. ranging from the restoration of cultural ecosystems to rewilding. We assess how the future of nature is envisioned in participatory scenarios, focusing on which elements of rewilding and nature contributions to people have been considered in scenario narratives across Europe. We used the Nature Futures Framework archetypes as a template to synthesize pluralistic perspectives of nature. We found that different values of nature are often represented as counteracting elements and fail to integrate the plural views of nature. Nature as Culture was the main archetype found in the scenarios, usually associated with positive impacts on the non-material benefits to people. Intrinsic values of nature (i.e., Nature for Nature) were associated with positive impacts on regulating benefits and negative impacts on material benefits, being the only archetype of future associated with positive impacts on all three components of rewilding. Nature for Society was associated with moderate positive impacts on material and regulatory nature contributions to people. Business as usual futures were associated with negative impacts on regulating and non-material benefits to people and on all three components of rewilding. Our results highlight two major gaps in the scenarios that should be addressed in participatory restoration planning and models. Firstly, there is a paucity of spatially explicit approaches, with most studies failing to transform the results of participatory scenario planning into model projections. Secondly, we found scenarios that explored co-benefits between multiple nature perspectives were overall missing from the literature. Novel scenario narratives and approaches that explore synergies among different nature values are needed to design future large-scale restoration where biodiversity recovery and human well-being are intrinsically linked and fostered.

Supporting the restoration of complex ecosystems requires long‐term and multi‐scale perspectives

“…Together, the studies of this Special Issue highlight how restoration initiatives in the Anthropocene should focus on conserving and promoting ecological complexity and emergent properties at multiple scales and nurturing the processes responsible for the long‐term maintenance of high biodiversity levels and ecological resilience (Bullock et al 2021, Mittelman et al 2021, Storch et al 2021). They emphasize the need for integrating pluralistic values of nature in restoration research and planning in order to find the required support to implement restoration at scale (Quintero‐Uribe et al 2022). Effective restoration planning also needs to consider transient dynamics and future trajectories under environmental changes to restore resilient systems for the future (Bullock et al 2021, Zurell et al 2021).…”

“…Empirical and theoretical work in spatial ecology, macroecology and biogeography are critical to meet these objectives. Ecological models are a powerful tool to help decision‐making at various spatial scales and move from a reactive mode of management to proactive planning, taking into account different objectives and solutions and exploring a variety of scenarios (Quintero‐Uribe et al 2022) – but more effort is needed to better include them into decision making (Zurell et al 2021). Providing social and ecological insights to inform local land‐management decisions will also be a major scientific challenge for restoration efforts to materialize over the coming decade, including understanding the plurality of nature values given by society in restoration and rewilding initiatives (Quintero‐Uribe et al 2022).…”

“…Papers in this special issue cover from local‐scale studies (Mittelman et al 2021, Zhang et al 2021) to continental (Segar et al 2021, Quintero‐Uribe et al 2022) and global (Monsarrat and Svenning 2021, Storch et al 2021, Vynne et al 2022), highlighting a growing interest for restoration research from a broad range of spatial perspectives.…”

“…However, restoration is ultimately a local challenge requiring intricate knowledge of the specific socioecological context. Quintero‐Uribe et al (2022) synthesize the information from participatory scenarios across Europe, assessing the plurality of views on which elements of nature are societal priorities for restoration, using the Nature Future framework of IPBES (Pereira et al 2020). Quintero‐Uribe et al find that scenarios matching the ‘Nature as Culture' archetype, which emphasizes the role of culture in shaping nature, were most commonly explored.…”

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

“…The Nature Futures Framework can be used to assess models and scenarios in terms of what types of nature values they emphasise (e.g. Quintero-Uribe et al 2022 ). It provides a tractable way of organising multiple types of nature values, which allows the Nature Futures Framework to be applied across diverse social, geographical, and sectoral contexts.…”