The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) introduced a new framework for analyzing social-ecological systems that has had wide influence in the policy and scientific communities. Studies after the MA are taking up new challenges in the basic science needed to assess, project, and manage flows of ecosystem services and effects on human well-being. Yet, our ability to draw general conclusions remains limited by focus on discipline-bound sectors of the full social-ecological system. At the same time, some polices and practices intended to improve ecosystem services and human well-being are based on untested assumptions and sparse information. The people who are affected and those who provide resources are increasingly asking for evidence that interventions improve ecosystem services and human well-being. New research is needed that considers the full ensemble of processes and feedbacks, for a range of biophysical and social systems, to better understand and manage the dynamics of the relationship between humans and the ecosystems on which they rely. Such research will expand the capacity to address fundamental questions about complex socialecological systems while evaluating assumptions of policies and practices intended to advance human well-being through improved ecosystem services.

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

A global system of harmonized observations is needed to inform scientists and policy-makers.

In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related "Aichi Targets" to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress.

Global biodiversity change is one of the most pressing environmental issues of our time. Here, we review current scientific knowledge on global biodiversity change and identify the main knowledge gaps. We discuss two components of biodiversity change-biodiversity alterations and biodiversity loss-across four dimensions of biodiversity: species extinctions, species abundances, species distributions, and genetic diversity. We briefly review the impacts that modern humans and their ancestors have had on biodiversity and discuss the recent declines and alterations in biodiversity. We analyze the direct pressures on biodiversity change: habitat change, overexploitation, exotic species, pollution, and climate change. We discuss the underlying causes, such as demographic growth and resource use, and review existing scenario projections. We identify successes and impending opportunities in biodiversity policy and management, and highlight gaps in biodiversity monitoring and models. Finally, we discuss how the ecosystem services framework can be used to identify undesirable biodiversity change and allocate conservation efforts.

It has been argued that globalization in human-mediated dispersal of species breaks down biogeographic boundaries, yet empirical tests are still missing. We used data on native and alien ranges of terrestrial gastropods to analyze dissimilarities in species composition among 56 globally distributed regions. We found that native ranges confirm the traditional biogeographic realms, reflecting natural dispersal limitations. However, the distributions of gastropods after human transport are primarily explained by the prevailing climate and, to a smaller extent, by distance and trade relationships. Our findings show that human-mediated dispersal is causing a breakdown of biogeographic barriers, and that climate and to some extent socioeconomic relationships will define biogeography in an era of global change.

For millennia, mankind has shaped landscapes, particularly through agriculture. In Europe, the age-old interaction between humans and ecosystems strongly influenced the cultural heritage. Yet European farmland is now being abandoned, especially in remote areas. The loss of the traditional agricultural landscapes and its consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services is generating concerns in both the scientific community and the public. Here we ask to what extent farmland abandonment can be considered as an opportunity for rewilding ecosystems. We analyze the perceptions of traditional agriculture in Europe and their influence in land management policies. We argue that, contrary to the common perception, traditional agriculture practices were not environmentally friendly and that the standards of living of rural populations were low. We suggest that current policies to maintain extensive farming landscapes underestimate the human labor needed to sustain these landscapes and the recent and future dynamics of the socio-economic drivers behind abandonment. We examine the potential benefits for ecosystems and people from rewilding. We identify species that could benefit from land abandonment and forest regeneration and the ecosystem services that could be provided such as carbon sequestration and recreation. Finally, we discuss the challenges associated with rewilding, including the need to maintain open areas, the fire risks, and the conflicts between people and wildlife. Despite these challenges, we argue that rewilding should be recognized by policy-makers as one of the possible land management options in Europe, particularly on marginal areas.

B iodiversity and the many ecosystem functions and services it underpins are undergoing significant and often rapid changes worldwide 1. A range of global initiatives and policy frameworks, including the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), have aimed to reduce this change and to halt the loss of biodiversity, with limited progress to date 2. Appropriately gauging the impact of such policies or the progress toward international biodiversity goals has a key requirement: the availability of information on the status and trends of biodiversity in a form that is easily understood, timely, scientifically rigorous, standardized, relevant, global and representative of species populations across taxa and regions over time. Such information is particularly crucial in assessments, such as those carried out by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) 3 , and is needed to construct 'indicators' , which are aggregate measures that often address specific conservation targets 4,5. Underpinning such metrics are core, essential measurements known as EBVs, which capture key constituent components of biodiversity change 6,7 , akin and complementary to the 'essential climate variables' supporting climate change assessment and policy 8. Facilitated by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON, http://geobon.org) and related efforts, the biodiversity science and observation community is now engaging in an effort to conceptualize and formulate these essential biodiversity components to enable more focused, integrated, and effective biodiversity monitoring in support of assessment and policy within a unified framework. This study represents the formal outcome of a process undertaken from 2015 through 2018 by the founding members of the GEO BON Species Populations Working Group 9 , which includes the authors of this Perspective, charged with providing the formal definitions, conceptualizations and recommendations addressing species distribution and abundance EBVs. Changes in species distribution and abundance affect all biodiversity facets 10 , including the loss of potentially significant traits and functions 1,11 and associated ecosystem consequences 12,13. Patterns of spatial distribution and changes to these patterns inform us about the commonness, rarity and potential extinction risk for species 14-16 , determine the national and regional stewardship of species and are key to ensuring effective monitoring 17 , protection 18,19 and population