Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

Abstract

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Resolving Conservation Conflicts through Shared Vision, Collective Benefits and Relevant Values

“…These proposals align with South Africa's aspirations of land restitution and redistribution, aiming to address historical injustices and provide local communities with meaningful participation and benefits from wildlife conservation efforts [38]. Recognising the complexity of achieving a vision of living in harmony, it is crucial to acknowledge the presence of diverse perspectives and understand that this vision cannot be easily or instantly realised [108]. In a developing country with a history of apartheid and colonial-ism, where local people are often excluded from conservation areas, it is not surprising to encounter negative attitudes towards game reserves and wildlife [38].…”

New paths for modelling freshwater nature futures

“…The three value perspectives in the corners of the triangular NFF provide a minimal set of entry- and anchor points for developing diverse social-ecological scenarios ( Pereira et al 2020 ). The resulting nature futures do not necessarily need to reflect these three value perspectives, as in fact, the corners provide extreme perspectives on what can still be considered ‘desirable’ ( Durán et al 2023 ). In practice, we expect many nature futures scenarios to be a mix of the value perspectives.…”

“… Durán et al (2023) show how different scenario storylines can be developed based on the NFF. The NFF can also be combined with existing frameworks and methods for scenario creation.…”

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

“…The examples highlight the need for increased recognitional equity in decision-support contexts, as dominant framings from status-quo decision-makers are often treated as the default or the starting point for integrating other perspectives. These might include assumptions about economic growth and progress ( 130 ), how humans value nature ( 131 ), or the positionality of humans ( 132 ). There are opportunities to foster co-production of knowledge based on “an ethic of knowledge co-existence and complementarity” ( 57 ) that weaves together different knowledge systems ( 133 ).…”

“…Instead of focusing solely on harms, we ask how can models both better represent and be better applied to support, the capabilities, agency ( 127 , 144 ), and desires ( 145 ) of communities? The Nature Futures Framework, under the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), offers one example of re-orienting scenario building and modeling to explore transformation toward desired futures ( 131 , 146 ), with explicit attention to value and knowledge system pluralism in visioning these futures ( 147 ).…”