Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model

Abstract

Método de incertidumbre paramétrica en la evaluación de un modelo hidrológico agregado

Estimation and Propagation of Parameter Uncertainty in Lumped Hydrological Models: A Case Study of HSPF Model Applied to Luxapallila Creek Watershed in Southeast USA

“…Select model parameters to be evaluated. Twelve HSPF parameters were identified from previous deterministic and probabilistic research performed in the study area [16,36,48]. These parameters covered all of the hydrologic aspects simulated by HSPF in the Luxapallila Creek watershed (Table 1).…”

“…Therefore, parameters of hydrologic models produce uncertainty. The current state of the practice of hydrologic modeling indicates that parametric uncertainty is considered as one of the most important sources of uncertainty [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Assessment of model parameter uncertainty is useful to [6,18] understand the inability of a model to accurately and precisely depict the real world; enhance the value of information reported; identify which parameters are most and least important; determine where to place more effort/resources to decrease the total uncertainty of the output; re-build a model; understand model limitations and strengths; calculate statistical properties of a model output; determine reliability analysis; and compare and choose between models.…”