Abstract:Introdução 1Desde o fim da ditadura militar, o Brasil realizou sete eleições presidenciais e teve chefes de governo de quatro partidos diferentes. O candidato do partido governista ganhou ou disputou o segundo turno nas cinco últimas eleições (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010
“…In addition to positions on crime and cultural backlash, some factors are specific to the Brazilian case and might be applicable to other Latin American cases. First, it is essential to keep in mind that corruption scandals have become an integral part of Brazilian elections (Rennó 2007(Rennó , 2011Pimentel Junior 2010;Corrêa 2015). Since the 2006 elections, on the eve of the Mensalao scandal, research has shown that perceptions of corruption as a national problem have consistently undermined the image of the Workers' Party.…”
Section: The Conservative Turn In the Brazilian 2018 Electionsmentioning
The 2018 Brazilian elections saw the rise to power of Jair Bolsonaro, yet another conservative politician who won an election in recent years. What were the ideological underpinnings of the Bolsonaro vote? Was his support based exclusively on resentment toward the Workers’ Party? This article uses a unique public opinion dataset, the 2018 Brazilian Electoral Panel Study, to explore how positions on divisive issues related to social, political, and cultural factors influenced vote choice and Bolsonarismo—affection toward Bolsonaro supporters—in the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections. Results indicate that in addition to resentment against the Workers’ Party, a cultural backlash perspective, and strict views on law and order, as well as economic liberalism and rejection of social policies, were the characteristics of support for Bolsonaro.
“…In addition to positions on crime and cultural backlash, some factors are specific to the Brazilian case and might be applicable to other Latin American cases. First, it is essential to keep in mind that corruption scandals have become an integral part of Brazilian elections (Rennó 2007(Rennó , 2011Pimentel Junior 2010;Corrêa 2015). Since the 2006 elections, on the eve of the Mensalao scandal, research has shown that perceptions of corruption as a national problem have consistently undermined the image of the Workers' Party.…”
Section: The Conservative Turn In the Brazilian 2018 Electionsmentioning
The 2018 Brazilian elections saw the rise to power of Jair Bolsonaro, yet another conservative politician who won an election in recent years. What were the ideological underpinnings of the Bolsonaro vote? Was his support based exclusively on resentment toward the Workers’ Party? This article uses a unique public opinion dataset, the 2018 Brazilian Electoral Panel Study, to explore how positions on divisive issues related to social, political, and cultural factors influenced vote choice and Bolsonarismo—affection toward Bolsonaro supporters—in the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections. Results indicate that in addition to resentment against the Workers’ Party, a cultural backlash perspective, and strict views on law and order, as well as economic liberalism and rejection of social policies, were the characteristics of support for Bolsonaro.
“…A expectativa era de que o aumento da renda dos entrevistados elevasse a probabilidade de reprovação do PBF e de visões mais críticas sobre ele. Esperava-se o mesmo da escolaridade, uma vez que estudos mostraram que ela reflete mais opiniões ligadas ao status socioeconômico do que apoio aos valores de igualdade (Hasenfeld e Rafferty, 1989;Jackman, 1978Jackman, , 1981Jackman e Muha, 1984 (Soares e Terron, 2008;Hunter e Power, 2007;Zucco, 2008Zucco, , 2013Zucco, , 2015Corrêa, 2015Corrêa, , 2016 Feldman (1983, p. 26), elas poderiam apresentar ambivalência, pois "a percepção da falta de oportunidades iguais produz apoio aos programas que ajudam os necessitados ao mesmo tempo em que a ética de trabalho gera hostilidade para com aqueles que aceitam tais auxílios" 17 .…”
Resumo O artigo analisa como os brasileiros se posicionam em relação ao Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) e seus beneficiários. Os dados são de uma pesquisa nacional de opinião pública encomendada pela Secretaria de Comunicação Social da Presidência da República (Secom-PR). Resultados de um modelo logístico multinomial sobre as chances de apoio ao PBF mostraram que elas crescem com a avaliação positiva do governo federal, o nível de informação sobre o programa e o contato com beneficiários, mas caem com o aumento da escolaridade, da renda familiar e do nível de individualismo dos entrevistados. Ambivalências aparecem quando as análises se voltam para as opiniões sobre a gestão do Bolsa Família e seus beneficiários em particular. Regressões via mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO), estimadas para avaliar as opiniões sobre os impactos positivos do PBF, a suposta falta de controle do programa e os beneficiários, mostraram que possuir mais conhecimento sobre o programa não diminui as visões negativas sobre os beneficiários ou as críticas em relação ao seu controle. De modo surpreendente, essas visões críticas estão presentes mesmo entre grupos de pessoas que teriam maiores chances de receber os recursos do Bolsa Família, como os menos escolarizados, não brancos e moradores do Nordeste.
“…Como ressalta King (1996) Os resultados de ambos os modelo mostram que o coeficiente do PBF é significativo e a magnitude do efeito encontrado é semelhante a outros da literatura (Zucco, 2008;Corrêa, 2015b O experimento mental elaborado a partir da próxima seção mostra a importância dessa questão.…”
Section: Análise Empíricaunclassified
“…Programas como PBF são importantes politicamente e mobilizados eleitoralmente, seja a favor, seja contra o partido formulador. Setores da mídia, alguns atores políticos e elites econômicas não raras vezes expressam críticas a aspectos de seu desenho, implementação e fiscalização(Biroli e Mantovani, 2010;Marques, 2008;Corrêa, 2015b;Corrêa e Cheibub, 2016;Kerstenetzky;Lindert e Vincensini;.A exposição pública dessas avaliações pode reverberar em formação de preferências eleitoralmente importantes sobre o partido que implementa a política.…”
unclassified
“…Corrêa (2015b), por exemplo, procura ressaltar que o programa social focalizado ensejou, além de efeitos positivos, efeitos negativos na performance eleitoral do PT Zucco (2008). e Canêdo-Pinheiro (2015) defendem a hipótese de que, além do efeito do PBF, o realinhamento expressou também uma tendência histórica brasileira de "governismo", que designa a propensão de eleitores e localidades pobres sufragarem o incumbente, independente de quem seja ou do que realize.…”
The presidential elections are the main competition of the Brazilian political system. The current literature on the subject pointed out two thesis about the nature and dynamic of presidential elections: The Bolsa-Família (PBF) conditional cash transfer program is considered to be central and determinant to the electoral results and in 2006 would have contributed to realign the electoral bases of PT, the only party competitive in all elections. The policy is considered to be fundamental to explain the strength of the party on Northeast among poor electors. On this dissertation I examine these hypothesis and debate the theoretical, methodological and empirical inconsistences and deficiencies of the current literature. In order to do so, I replicate models, analyze novel models looking at surveys and aggregate data on the municipal level and on ballot level, among other methods. The results highlight conclusions different from the standing literature. First, I argue that the correlation between the electoral changes of 2006 and the social profile of electors occur heterogeneously over different regions and localities. If the proper measure is applied, these variations are better understood as a movement of volatile electors and not as realignment of electoral bases. Moreover, contrary to the current literature, I emphasize that the investigation over the electoral effect of the PBF shouldn't be restricted to its beneficiaries and neither that it is possible to infer its importance on the electoral result based on its regional distribution. Contrarily, based on the data we gathered, the impact of the PBF to the electoral results was more important on the Southeast than on the Northeast and it is not restricted to electors directly beneficed by the program. Still, I argue that if the adequate framework is adopted, it is possible to say that the impact of the PBF on the electoral results wasn't very strong or determinant to the electoral result. I conclude that the parties' long term electoral bases influence on present results, minimizing the fluctuations that occurred in 2006. As it happens with all the policies with high potential to impact on voters decisions, the effect of the PBF cannot be analyzed separately, it has to be considered inside the context of the electoral and political dispute.
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