Optimum life-cycle maintenance strategies of deteriorating highway bridges subject to seismic hazard by a hybrid Markov decision process model

Tao, Weifeng; Lin, Peihua; Wang, Naiyu

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.102042

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Generally, stochastic processes involving specific statistical distributions are used to model the degradation process in order to estimate transition laws between different degradation levels of deteriorating systems or components (Shafiee and Sørensen, 2019). For example, Weibull distributed state transition times (Le and Andrews, 2016a,b;Le et al, 2017;Ferreira et al, 2019Ferreira et al, , 2020, Gamma processes (Tao et al, 2021), Markov processes (Bressi et al, 2021), and compound Poisson processes (Yang and Frangopol, 2019) have been adopted for modeling the time-dependent evolution of degradation indicators (e.g. scour, corrosion, etc.)…”

Section: Objectives and Main Scientific Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterioration modeling and maintenance assessment using physics-informed stochastic Petri nets: Application to torrent protection structures

Chahrour

Nasr

Tacnet

et al. 2021

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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Mountain territories are remarkably exposed to natural phenomena such as torrential floods, arising due to climate and geophysical environmental changes. Protection structures deteriorate with time due to the harsh phenomena they are subjected to since their construction. If not regularly maintained, the level of protection offered by these structures will be reduced. The methodology presented in this paper integrates physics-based and dependability models for monitoring the state evolution of protection structures and improving maintenance decision-making processes. The modeling approach proposed is based on 1) physics-based modeling for identifying the probabilistic laws of the transition times between the defined states of the structure depending on its behavior over time and 2) a decision aiding method based on Petri nets, which helps in choosing the best maintenance strategy while considering budgetary constraints. This approach is applied on a check dam located within a series of check dams in the Manival torrent in Saint-Ismier, France.

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Section: Objectives and Main Scientific Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterioration modeling and maintenance assessment using physics-informed stochastic Petri nets: Application to torrent protection structures

Chahrour

Nasr

Tacnet

et al. 2021

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…Yosri et al [16] developed a stationary GA-based Markov chain model to effectively predict future bridge conditions based on historical data. Tao et al [17] have proposed a novel hybrid Markov decision process model that integrates a discrete-time Markov decision process model for dealing with progressive deterioration and a continuous-time Markov decision process model for dealing with sudden earthquakes into a unified framework. Schöbi et al [18] presented an enhanced variant of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) for the life cycle assessment and maintenance planning of infrastructure, which can achieve a better balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State-Based Technical Condition Assessment and Prediction of Concrete Box Girder Bridges

Zhu,

Ye,

et al. 2024

Buildings

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The technical condition of bridges has become a crucial issue for organizing the maintenance and repairs in bridge management systems. It is of great practical engineering significance to construct an effective model for predicting the technical condition degradation of the bridge through the use of the historical inspection data. Based on the semi-Markov random process, this paper proposes a useful deterioration prediction model for bridges in the highway network. From the historical inspection data of the prefabricated concrete box girder bridges, the degradation curves of technical condition rating are obtained. The effect of bridge length on degradation rate of the prefabricated concrete box girder bridges is analyzed. According to the Weibull distribution parameters of different condition grades, the technical state degradation models for a bridge group and an individual bridge are proposed to predict the performance of the overall bridge and superstructure of the bridge. The results show that with the increase in bridge length, the degradation rate of bridge technical condition increases. The degradation rate of the technical condition of the superstructure is faster than that of the overall bridge. The proposed semi-Markov stochastic degradation model for the bridge group can not only predict the different condition ratings of the bridges at any time, but also predict the future deterioration trend of an individual bridge under any ratings.

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“…Furthermore, many studies were conducted to predict ground motion depending on the soil condition [21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. Although damage accumulation models are available in the reported literature [18,28,29], the prediction of the life cycle performance of bridges and the vulnerability of bridges subject to repetitive earthquakes is limited.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Reliability-Based Framework for Damage Accumulation Due to Multiple Earthquakes: A Case Study on Bridges

et al. 2023

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Damage accumulation due to multiple seismic impacts over time has a significant effect on the residual service life of the bridge. A reliability-based framework was developed to make decisions in bridge maintenance activities. The feature of the framework enables quantifying the time-dependent probability of failure of bridges due to the impact of multiple earthquakes and progressive deterioration. To estimate the reliability of the bridge systems, the probability of failure of the bridge was used. Two case studies were utilised to demonstrate how the method can be applied to the real world. Results show that the accumulated damage caused by multiple earthquakes and progressive deterioration significantly impact the remaining useful life of the bridge. Furthermore, the soil conditions predominantly influence the progressive deterioration and reduce the service life of the bridge. Overall, the proposed framework enables the sustainable decision-making process for bridge maintenance activities. The results reveal the necessity of including the combined impact in the bridge maintenance system and that there is a more than 40% increase in the probability of failure, due to the combined effect of progressive deterioration and earthquake impacts, compared to the impact only due to seismic loads for the considered case study bridge.

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Optimum life-cycle maintenance strategies of deteriorating highway bridges subject to seismic hazard by a hybrid Markov decision process model

Cited by 15 publications

References 33 publications

Deterioration modeling and maintenance assessment using physics-informed stochastic Petri nets: Application to torrent protection structures

Deterioration modeling and maintenance assessment using physics-informed stochastic Petri nets: Application to torrent protection structures

State-Based Technical Condition Assessment and Prediction of Concrete Box Girder Bridges

A Reliability-Based Framework for Damage Accumulation Due to Multiple Earthquakes: A Case Study on Bridges

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