A Reliability-Based Framework for Damage Accumulation Due to Multiple Earthquakes: A Case Study on Bridges

Abstract

Damage accumulation due to multiple seismic impacts over time has a significant effect on the residual service life of the bridge. A reliability-based framework was developed to make decisions in bridge maintenance activities. The feature of the framework enables quantifying the time-dependent probability of failure of bridges due to the impact of multiple earthquakes and progressive deterioration. To estimate the reliability of the bridge systems, the probability of failure of the bridge was used. Two case studies were utilised to demonstrate how the method can be applied to the real world. Results show that the accumulated damage caused by multiple earthquakes and progressive deterioration significantly impact the remaining useful life of the bridge. Furthermore, the soil conditions predominantly influence the progressive deterioration and reduce the service life of the bridge. Overall, the proposed framework enables the sustainable decision-making process for bridge maintenance activities. The results reveal the necessity of including the combined impact in the bridge maintenance system and that there is a more than 40% increase in the probability of failure, due to the combined effect of progressive deterioration and earthquake impacts, compared to the impact only due to seismic loads for the considered case study bridge.