Optimism Following a Tornado Disaster

Abstract

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers. AbstractEffects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gutlevel" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

Perceiving Risk in a Dangerous World: Associations between Life Experiences and Risk Perceptions

“…However, not recognizing an adequate amount of risk can leave one unprepared to face adversity, should it arise. Even when directly impacted by some community disasters (e.g., earthquakes and tornadoes), people appear to recover fairly quickly from the increased risk perceptions associated with them and maintain a comparative optimism, while some disasters (e.g., nuclear accidents) result in more persistent, pessimistic changes in perceived vulnerabilities (Dolinski, Gromski, & Zawisza, 1987;Li et al, 2011;Suls et al, 2013). Examining comparative optimism in those who have experienced violent life events could be an important next step in this line of research.…”

“…However, a variety of findings (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) suggest that this is not always the case. Instead, multiple other factors have been found to be associated with perceived risk, including demographic characteristics such as race and sex (Slovic, 1999), affect (Johnson & Tversky, 1983;Slovic, 1987), perceptions of others' beliefs regarding a hazard (Starr, 1969), and proximity, both geographic and temporal, to a catastrophic event Suls, Rose, Windschitl, & Smith, 2013;Trumbo, Lueck, Marlatt, & Peek, 2011).…”

“…With a few recent exceptions (see, e.g., Suls et al, 2013;Trumbo et al, 2011), one factor that has received relatively little attention is the role of prior life experiences in judgments of risk. While it is intuitively plausible that people who have experienced violence or disaster first-hand believe such events to be more likely than do others, there is little empirical evidence to support this intuition.…”

Near-miss events, risk messages, and decision making

“…These later two definitions of optimism are often components of the ''optimism bias'' (see, for example, Weinstein (1989)) that has been found in relation to risks in extreme sports (Middleton 1996), motor vehicle driving (Lee and Job 1995), earthquakes (Job et al 1995), and experiencing work place hazards (Caponecchia 2010). Also, Suls et al (2013) examine comparative optimism for community members that experienced an F-2 tornado and find that unrealistic comparative optimism was ''alive and well'' (Suls et al 2013: 700) across a community that experienced a significant tornado.…”

Travel risk perceptions, travel intentions and influencing factors: A natural disaster context

“…Previous studies (Bland, O'Leary, Farinaro, Jossa, & Trevisan, 1996;Karanci & RÜStemli, 1995;Neria, Nandi, & Galea, 2008;Norris, 2006;North et al, 2011;Suls, Rose, Windschitl, & Smith, 2013) have acknowledged that the length of a traumatic disaster and the timing of assessment are important points that can contribute to anxiety levels. Some scholars (Galea et al, 2004;Nandi, Galea, Ahern, & Vlahov, 2005) defined time by measuring the disaster experience in the context of terrorism within 12 months of the event.…”