Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Digna, Reem Fikri Mohamed Osman; Castro-Gama, Mario; Zaag, Pieter van der; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Corzo, Gerald; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

doi:10.3390/w10070921

Cited by 26 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The results of the stochastic PE model employed to design the simulation scenarios for the GTAP-W model are similar, but not identical to those reported in other studies (Goor et al, 2010;Arjoon et al, 2014;Digna et al, 2018). The differences are mainly due to changes to the baseline and input data in the agricultural sector, which were made consistent in this study with the data used for the CGE model based on the IMPACT data.…”

Section: Tablesupporting

confidence: 78%

“…The substantial increases in irrigation water and land use increases total crop output in the country by 117.8, 419.6, and 132.9 tons, respectively, during dry, average and wet hydrological conditions. Recent studies (Arjoon et al, 2014;Digna et al, 2018) have shown that if the riparian countries were to cooperate under a scenario with large irrigation expansion in Sudan, increased water use in that country could partially be compensated by re-operating the downstream reservoirs at lower pool elevation in order to reduce evaporation losses. In this study, however, although water diversions in Sudan are increasing with GERD online, the difference is not significant enough and HAD does not require to be re-operated at lower pool elevation in order to reduce evaporation losses.…”

Section: Partial Equilibrium Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

Kahsay

Arjoon

Kuik

et al. 2019

Environmental Modelling & Software

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A novel integrated hydro-economic modeling framework that links a bottom-up partial equilibrium (engineering) model with a top-down (economic) general equilibrium model is developed for assessing the regional economic impacts of water resources management and infrastructure development decisions in a transboundary river basin. The engineering model is employed first to solve the water allocation problem for a river system in a partial equilibrium setting. The resulting system-wide changes in optimal water allocation are subsequently fed into the general equilibrium model to provide an economy-wide perspective. This integrated hydro-economic modeling framework is illustrated using the Eastern Nile River basin as a case study. The engineering-based stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) model of the Eastern Nile basin is coupled with the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-W to assess the economy-wide impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Eastern Nile economies.

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Section: Tablesupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Partial Equilibrium Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

Kahsay

Arjoon

Kuik

et al. 2019

Environmental Modelling & Software

Self Cite

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“…Generally, the majority of previous studies imply that the teleconnections between SST and Ethiopian rainfall are complicated on both spatial and temporal scales and still not well investigated. Therefore, the objective of this study is directed toward more understanding the characteristics of interannual variability of rainfall in the country and investigating clearly the influence of global SSTs on Ethiopian rainfall peaks at various regions and seasons (summer and spring), to reinforce the skill of rainfall predictions that would be valuable for operations of reservoirs [22], assessment and allocation of water resources [23,24], and for mitigation of disasters related to rainfall such as flooding and drought [25]. Also, better understanding of the rainfall variability plays a key role in several applications including hydrological analysis [26][27][28][29][30][31] and soil erosion risk assessment [32][33][34][35][36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia and Its Long-Term Link to Global Sea Surface Temperatures

Alhamshry

Fenta

Yasuda

et al. 2019

Water

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Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer and spring seasons. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision of rainfall grid points into zones was applied depending on spatial homogeneity and seasonality of rainfall. This introduced new clusters, including nine zones for summer rainfall peak (July/August) and five zones for spring rainfall peak (April/May). Afterward, the time series for each zone was derived by calculating the rainfall averaged over grid points within the zone. Secondly, the oceanic regions that significantly correlated with the Ethiopian rainfall were identified through cross-correlations between rainfalls averaged over every homogeneous zone and the monthly averaged SST. For summer rainfall as a main rainy season, the results indicated that the Gulf of Guinea and southern Pacific Ocean had a significant influence on rainfall zones at a lag time of 5-6 and 6-7 months. Besides, for summer rainfall zones 8 and 9 at lag time 5-6 months, the common SST regions of the southern Pacific Ocean showed the opposite sense of positive and negative correlations. Thus, the difference in SSTs between the two regions was more strongly correlated (r ≥ 0.46) with summer rainfall in both zones than others. For the spring season, the results indicated that SST of the northern Atlantic Ocean had a strong influence on spring rainfall zones (3 and 5) at a lag time 6-7 months, as indicated by a significant correlation (r ≥ −0.40). Therefore, this study suggests that SSTs of southern Pacific and northern Atlantic oceans can be used as effective inputs for prediction models of Ethiopian summer and spring rainfalls, respectively.

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“…While the Catamayo-Chira Basin is jointly managed by Ecuadorian and Peruvian authorities, coordinated management of water-related infrastructure across the international borders of the Blue Nile and Tekeze-Atbara basins rarely exists (Wheeler et al, 2018). A recent study has analyzed the potential of a joint transboundary water management for hydro-economic sectors particularly through the integration of the newly build Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (Digna et al, 2018).…”

Section: Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated seasonal forecasts: a long-term reference forecast product for the water sector in semi-arid regions

Lorenz¹,

Portele²,

Laux³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Seasonal forecasts have the potential to substantially improve water management particularly in water scarce regions. However, global seasonal forecasts are usually not directly applicable as they are provided at coarse spatial resolutions of at best 36 km and suffer from model biases and drifts. In this study, we therefore apply a bias-correction and spatial-disaggregation (BCSD) approach to seasonal precipitation, temperature and radiation forecasts of the latest long-range seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As reference we use data from the ERA5-Land offline land surface re-run of the latest ECMWF reanalysis ERA5. By that, we correct for model biases and drifts and improve the spatial resolution from 36 km to 0.1°. This is exemplary performed over 4 predominately semi-arid study domains across the world, which include the river basins of the Karun (Iran), the São Francisco (Brazil), the Tekeze-Atbara and Blue Nile (Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea), and the Catamayo-Chira (Ecuador and Peru). Compared against ERA5-Land, the bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated forecasts have a higher spatial resolution and show reduced biases and better agreement of spatial patterns than the raw forecasts. Furthermore, the lead-dependent drift effects are remarkably reduced in the BCSD-forecasts. However, our analysis also showed that computing monthly averages from daily bias-corrected forecasts can lead to statistical inconsistencies particularly during periods and seasons with strong temporal climate gradients or heteroscedasticity. During such periods, particularly the lowest- and highest-lead forecasts can show remaining biases. Our dataset covers the whole (re-)forecast period from 1981 to 2019, for which we provide bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated daily ensemble forecasts for precipitation, average, minimum and maximum temperature as well as for shortwave radiation from the initial date to the coming 214 days. This sums up to more than 100,000 forecasted days for each of the 25 (until the year 2016) and 51 (from the year 2017) ensemble members and each of the 5 analyzed variables. The full repository is made freely available to the public via the World Data Centre for Climate at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D01_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D01, Karun Basin (Iran), Lorenz et al., 2020b), https://doi. org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D02_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D02: São Francisco Basin (Brazil), Lorenz et al., 2020c), https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D03_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D03: Tekeze-Atbara and Blue Nile Basins (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan), Lorenz et al., 2020d), and https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/SaWaM_D04_SEAS5_BCSD (Domain D04: Catamayo-Chira Basin (Ecuador, Peru), Lorenz et al., 2020a). It is currently the first publicly available daily high-resolution seasonal forecast product that covers multiple regions and variables for such a long period. It hence provides a unique test-bed for evaluating the performance of seasonal forecasts over semi-arid regions and as driving data for hydrological, ecosystem or climate impact models. Therefore, our forecasts provide a crucial contribution for the disaster preparedness and, finally, climate proofing of the regional water management in climatically sensitive regions.

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Optimal Operation of the Eastern Nile System Using Genetic Algorithm, and Benefits Distribution of Water Resources Development

Cited by 26 publications

References 40 publications

A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia and Its Long-Term Link to Global Sea Surface Temperatures

Bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated seasonal forecasts: a long-term reference forecast product for the water sector in semi-arid regions

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