Opportunities and Presidential Uses of Force

Brulé, David J.; Marshall, Bryan W.; Prins, Brandon C.

doi:10.1177/0738894210379475

Cited by 17 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 67 publications

(215 reference statements)

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“…Scholars suggest presidents will “initiate disputes when economic conditions are poor” (Brulé, Marshall, and Prins , 505). Therefore, I also included interactive terms for unemployment and crisis as well as inflation and crisis.…”

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confidence: 99%

Unilateral Presidential Policy Making and the Impact of Crises

Young

2013

Pres Stud Q

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Scholars interested in the power of the presidency often overlook the importance of a crisis. The right kind of event, however, has characteristics that create a window of opportunity for a president to exert or expand his unilateral power. Failure to explore this relationship leaves a gap in our knowledge regarding presidential power, which this article addresses. The results show foreign policy crises provide the largest window for a president to increase his authority. Economic crises and most natural disasters have little to no impact on unilateral power. Epidemic outbreaks are the exception, though compared to a foreign policy crisis, the impact is relatively small. Finally, the findings suggest a president suffering from institutional constraints or lacking in skill and will has the ability to increase his power whenever a foreign policy crisis occurs.

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confidence: 99%

Unilateral Presidential Policy Making and the Impact of Crises

Young

2013

Pres Stud Q

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“…This approach views a bad economy as a driving force incentivizing political leaders to initiate diversionary conflict as a way of proving their ability to lead the country (e.g. Bennett & Nordstrom, 2000; Brulé, Marshall & Prins, 2010; Fordham, 1998; Heldt, 1999; Solt, 2011). Of course, the leaders could also gain support by rebooting the economy, but they often feel unable to do so.…”

Section: An Economic Theory Of Diversionary Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic slowdowns and international conflict

Jung

2022

Journal of Peace Research

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This article examines whether and how economic slowdowns lead to military conflict. Although a weak economy (as reflected, for example, by high inflation and unemployment rates) has often been regarded as a cause of interstate conflict, this study proposes that worse economy, that is, a negative trend of growth rates, tends to make political leaders face domestic challenge from dissatisfied public and look for diversionary targets. In addition, it hypothesizes that economically troubled states will target their junior trade partners, which are less likely to retaliate harshly. The results, based on an analysis of directed dyads from 1950 to 2010, show that a state is more likely to initiate military conflict when economic growth slows. When the initiator is an autocracy and the target is a democracy, this aggression is likely directed toward a vulnerable trade partner. However, a potential initiator’s political unrest does not increase the tendency to target a junior economic partner. These findings suggest that an autocracy’s slowing economy can threaten a politically dissimilar and economically dependent state, and that political and economic unrest have different effects on diversionary conflict as these factors interact with the domestic and international environments. Given our globalized economy and the current erosion of democracy worldwide, we could experience more frequent conflicts between economically troubled autocracies and their junior trade partners.

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“…Strategic conflict avoidance theory has been widely analyzed at the international level (Brulé, Marshall, and Prins 2010;Clark 2003;Clark, Fordham, and Nordstrom 2016;Davies 2007;Enterline and Gleditsch 2000;Fordham 2005;Foster 2006;Keller and Foster 2016;Leeds and Davis 1997;Smith 1996Smith , 1998 but has been less frequently studied at the domestic level. Fordham (2005) posits that strategic conflict avoidance manifests in two behavioral modifications.…”

Section: Strategic Response Of Domestic Terror Groupsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic Interaction of Governments and Terrorist Groups in Times of Economic Hardship

Tokdemir

Klein

2021

Defence and Peace Economics

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When governments' ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to re-establish or boost their survival. In this paper, we theorize dyadic strategic choices and interactions between governments and domestic terrorist groups in times of economic turmoil. We contend that governments are more likely to increase their targeting of domestic terrorist groups, which provides legitimate opportunities to divert public attention from economic concerns and rally individuals around the flag. Meanwhile, observing such incentives, domestic terrorist groups make strategic decisions similar to those of interstate actors by either decreasing their attacks (strategic conflict avoidance) or increasing them (strategic conflict seeking) to add an inability to provide safety and security to the government's existing struggles. We test these competing hypotheses by leveraging two recently released event datasets focusing on the Turkey-PKK conflict. Our findings contribute to the terrorism studies literature on decision-making and strategic choices, and broader scholarship about conflict processes by testing conflict dynamics at the domestic level.

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Opportunities and Presidential Uses of Force

Cited by 17 publications

References 67 publications

Unilateral Presidential Policy Making and the Impact of Crises

Unilateral Presidential Policy Making and the Impact of Crises

Economic slowdowns and international conflict

Strategic Interaction of Governments and Terrorist Groups in Times of Economic Hardship

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