Online engagement with 2020 election misinformation and turnout in the 2021 Georgia runoff election

Abstract

Following the 2020 general election, Republican elected officials, including then-President Donald Trump, promoted conspiracy theories claiming that Joe Biden’s close victory in Georgia was fraudulent. Such conspiratorial claims could implicate participation in the Georgia Senate runoff election in different ways—signaling that voting doesn’t matter, distracting from ongoing campaigns, stoking political anger at out-partisans, or providing rationalizations for (lack of) enthusiasm for voting during a transfer of power. Here, we evaluate the possibility of any on-average relationship with turnout by combining behavioral measures of engagement with election conspiracies online and administrative data on voter turnout for 40,000 Twitter users registered to vote in Georgia. We find small, limited associations. Liking or sharing messages opposed to conspiracy theories was associated with higher turnout than expected in the runoff election, and those who liked or shared tweets promoting fraud-related conspiracy theories were slightly less likely to vote.

The role of freedom of communication in modulating the effect of political participation on electoral outcome in Africa

“…As the earlier literature review noted, democracy influences political participation, which influences the political outcome. Green and others (2022) and Kratou and Laakso (2022) emphasized that governments that ensure democracy and freedom to the citizens receive trust, which, in any case during elections, would not receive criticism on whether the elections are corrupt or not. This section tests the third hypothesis presented in the last section of the literature review.…”

“…This argument is further backed by Kelly and Cook (2011) who argued that, even though freedom of communication is controlled and restricted, it still contributes to political participation and a fair electoral process in Africa. Nevertheless, according to Green and others (2022) and Kratou and Laakso (2022), false propaganda spread in the name of expressing freedom of communication has to be restricted for better political outcomes. In the African context, I expect freedom of expression to increase political participation, which is hypothesized to positively influence fair elections, given that most African countries since the turn of the 21st century have employed external organizations to supervise elections to ensure transparency and fair electoral outcomes.Hypothesis Freedom of communication positively moderates the effect of political participation on electoral outcomes in Africa.…”

Effects of Misinformation on Election Beliefs: Disentangling Motivated Reasoning from Selective Exposure

“…Observational studies that capture naturally-occurring exposures similarly point to significant but limited effects of misinformation. Green et al (2022) examined misinformation exposure on Twitter. They found that people who engaged with conspiracy theories were likelier to vote, suggesting that, at least on Twitter, online exposure can have downstream effects on important political outcomes.…”

Effects of a Digital Media Literacy Intervention to Build Misinformation Resilience in Diverse Communities: Social and Motivational Considerations in Intervention Efficacy

“…Misinformation can also threaten core civic processes. Exposure to false claims about politics discourages voter turnout (Green et al, 2022), produces a less-informed citizenry (Morgan et al, 2021), and erodes confidence in democracy itself (Ognyanova et al, 2020;Dahlke & Hancock, 2022).…”