“One Belt, One Road” Initiative to Stimulate Trade in China: A Counter-Factual Analysis

Chen, Shih‐Chih; Hou, Jianing; De, Xiao

doi:10.3390/su10093242

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…In 2015 and 2016 the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU'S) to develop and improve infrastructures such as railways, highways and aviation. This initiative is regarded as a tool for boosting China's foreign trade, especially with countries along the BRI [1,[33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. It underlines regional connectivity through ports and infrastructural projects.…”

Section: The Concept Of Belt and Road Initiativementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

Dumor

Yao

2019

Sustainability

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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the auspices of the Chinese government was created as a regional integration and development model between China and her trade partners. Arguments have been raised as to whether this initiative will be beneficial to participating countries in the long run. We set to examine how to estimate this trade initiative by comparing the relative estimation powers of the traditional gravity model with the neural network analysis using detailed bilateral trade exports data from 1990 to 2017. The results show that neural networks are better than the gravity model approach in learning and clarifying international trade estimation. The neural networks with fixed country effects showed a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model with country-year fixed effects, as in the OLS estimator and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that more than 50% of the 6 participating East African countries in the BRI were able to attain their predicted targets. Kenya achieved an 80% (4 of 5) target. Drawing from the lessons of the BRI and the use of neural network model, it will serve as an important reference point by which other international trade interventions could be measured and compared.

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Section: The Concept Of Belt and Road Initiativementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

Dumor

Yao

2019

Sustainability

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“…As labor costs increased, the price advantage of Hainan's fruit exports was completely lost in 2008, and the contribution of its competitiveness to Hainan's fruit export growth dropped rapidly. e implementation of the One Belt One Road strategy has strongly promoted the export growth of many kinds of in-dustries [28] include Hainan's fruit and overshadowed the adverse effect of the decline in competitiveness [29,30].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Market Structure, International Competitiveness, and Price Formation of Hainan’s Fruit Exports

Huang

Teng

et al. 2021

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Through a constant market share (CMS) model and a price index model, current research aims to analyze the impetus of the growth of Hainan, China’s fruit exports and the adverse impact of rising production costs. This paper considered the changes in the international competitiveness of Hainan’s fruit exports and analyzed the reasons for these changes. Additionally, this manuscript analyzed the effects of Hainan’s price-bargaining power on fruit exports under the condition of asymmetric information by applying a two-tier stochastic frontier analysis model. The results show that the rising costs of labor led to the gradual loss of price advantage, and the contribution of competitiveness to the growth of Hainan’s fruit exports has rapidly declined. The results also indicate that the degree of information held by both importers and Hainan has an important influence on the final exporting price, whereas the importers hold more information and have stronger price-bargaining power than Hainan. Policy suggestions based on the results are proposed.

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“…As shown in Figure 1, there was a small peak in China's global market share after the initial implementation of the OBOR policy. Relatedly, Chen et al [14] proved that there was a stimulatory effect of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative on Chinese trade volume.…”

Section: The Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The computation package of lasso in STATA is available at http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/bocode/l. According to Chen et al [14], the participants in the OBOR initiative and China's Asian neighbors should be excluded as control units without the treatment. Our selected countries for synthesizing the counterfactual include Argentina, Italy, Canada, Mexico, Egypt, Spain, France, Switzerland, Germany, and the UK, which coincidentally satisfy the presumed selection criteria, given that they are geographically remote from and have significant cultural differences with China.…”

Section: Tests For Significance Of the Obor Policy Interventionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the Benefits of the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative for Manufacturing Industries in China

Hou

Chen

2018

Sustainability

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China has shifted its focus from export-led growth to technology-driven growth. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative (OBOR) is aimed at promoting economic integration with the rest of the world that might boost China's ability to upgrade its manufacturers. We evaluate the impact of the OBOR initiative on the manufacturing industries of China. In other words, we examine whether the greater openness entailed by the initiative has been a catalyst for upgrading China's export portfolio. We demonstrate that the proposition has been such a catalyst formally and adduce some empirical support for the proposition by using a panel of the top 80 exporting countries in the world during the period from 2002-2017 to evaluate the impact of the economic integration brought by the OBOR in terms of upgrades to Chinese manufacturers. Meanwhile, when domestic R&D generates knowledge spillover, the benefits of greater openness become partly indeterminate, thus counterfactual analysis was adopted to preclude potential endogeneity. By relating the values of exports at the two-digit harmonized system level to data on sectors to conduct integration within global production networks, we find that the greater openness brought by the OBOR initiative has actively increased manufacturing complexity and facilitated industrial upgrading in China.

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“One Belt, One Road” Initiative to Stimulate Trade in China: A Counter-Factual Analysis

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

Market Structure, International Competitiveness, and Price Formation of Hainan’s Fruit Exports

Measuring the Benefits of the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative for Manufacturing Industries in China

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