One and Done: Examining the Relationship Between Years of College Basketball Experience and Career Statistics in the National Basketball Association

Abstract

Since 2006, the so-called one and done rule prevents American high school players from joining the National Basketball Association (NBA) without at least 1 year of college basketball experience. While there is debate about the pros and cons of the one and done rule, few studies have fully examined how minimal (or no) college experience relates to performance in the NBA. The current study used publicly available offensive and defensive statistics for all players in the NBA from 1995 to 2016, to examine the relationship between years of college experience and career success in the NBA. Results showed that players with less college experience had better offensive, defensive, and advanced metric (player efficiency rating [PER] and value over replacement player [VORP]) statistics than players with more college experience. However, players with less college experience also made more mistakes in game play, such as turnovers and fouls. The results suggest that college players may not need to attend college to succeed in the NBA.

Peer effects and human capital accumulation: Time spent in college and productivity in the National Basketball Association

“…Two measures of NBA performance are considered, PER and win shares per 48 min (WS48). Rather than looking at entire career statistics when assessing performance like Zestcott et al (2020), we look at performance in individual seasons in the first, third, and fifth years following the draft, as well as cumulative performance through Year 5 following the draft, an approach comparable to Groothuis et al (2007). PER is a per minute measure of player performance which attributes positive value to positive accomplishments like scoring points or blocking shots and negative value to negative outcomes like missing shots or turning the ball over.…”

“…Players drafted following only 1 year in college or drafted directly out of high school are typically of higher innate ability and are drafted much earlier in the draft. Zestcott et al (2020) do not control for draft order. Though Groothuis et al (2007) focus primarily on time spent in college through the lens of the player's decision to enter the draft early, they do some analysis looking at the impact of college on NBA performance.…”

“…A small literature exists which looks to assess the impact of years played in college on performance in the NBA. Most closely related to this work is Zestcott et al (2020). Using data from 1995 to 2016, they look to assess the impact of years played in college on career offensive statistics, defensive statistics, advanced statistics, and mistakes in game play.…”

“…While members of the media frequently tout the benefits of spending additional time playing in college, recent works in the literature have found that players who enter the league at a younger age and with less college experience generally perform better (Rodenberg & Kim, 2012; Zestcott et al, 2020). There are three important but related questions that this work seeks to answer.…”

“…Ending the data in 2014 allows for a sufficient window after leaving college to assess player performance in the NBA. One drawback of past works looking at years of college basketball experience and NBA performance, like Zestcott et al (2020), has been insufficient addressing of differences in innate ability between "one-and-done" players and those who spend more time in college. In the sample considered in this paper, "one-and-done" players were drafted significantly earlier in the draft and had significantly stronger freshman year college performance statistics.…”