On the strategic consequences of digital espionage

Secret Intelligence and Public Diplomacy in the Ukraine War

“…Governments, therefore, have less control over decisionmaking and narratives. 52 Political calculations concerning the use and deployment of intelligence for influence may be altered in ways that will not be entirely clear until the internal correspondence of state bureaucracies and national leaders is declassified.…”

The rise of cyber power in Brazil

“…Like other instruments of national power, cyber power should not be conceived in isolation, but as part of a wider toolkit: it is one amongst several means to achieve objectives, both in times of war and peace, and with effects that are not solely confined to cyberspace (Nye 2011;Jervis 2016). The operational modalities of cyber power, particularly in the potential strategic consequences of misperceiving, for example, digital espionage as an offensive cyber operation, amplify the already significant impact of ambiguity and uncertainty in inter-state relations (Jervis 2016;Jervis 2017;Devanny, Goldoni and Medeiros 2020;Devanny, Martin and Stevens 2021). Hence, its strategic purpose can be summarized as "the ability in peace and war to manipulate perceptions of the strategic environment to one's advantage while at the same time degrading the ability of an adversary to comprehend that same environment" (Sheldon 2011, 95).…”

The autocrat’s intelligence paradox: Vladimir Putin’s (mis)management of Russian strategic assessment in the Ukraine War

“…To repression add a penchant for espionage and aggressive active measures, some traditional and others with a modern digital twist in the cyber era (Gioe, 2018). Russia’s expertise in penetrating adversary computer networks to steal secrets or engage in more disruptive action is judged to be formidable (Devanny et al, 2021; Soldatov, 2017). Indeed, until his disastrous miscalculation in invading Ukraine, conventional wisdom held that Putin’s professional background conferred on him a perspective rarely enjoyed by senior political figures in great powers in matters related to secrecy and security.…”