Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines

Cinco, Thelma A.; Guzman, Rosalina G. de; Ortiz, Andrea Monica D.; Delfino, Rafaela Jane; Lasco, Rodel D.; Hilario, Flaviana D.; Juanillo, Edna L.; Barba, Rose; Ares, Emma D.

doi:10.1002/joc.4659

Cited by 140 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…This is noted during JJA over Indochina (R16, R18, R19), except in R20 where simulated rainfall is higher than observed, especially on the windward side of mountains and along the coast of Myanmar. While seasonal model rainfall is close to observed in R1, it is underestimated in R2 from May to December, also shown in Cruz et al (2016), where tropical cyclones (TC), northeast monsoon, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also contribute to rainfall in this region (Yumul et al 2011;Pullen et al 2015;Cinco et al 2016). Nonetheless, NHRCM is closer to observed compared with ERA-Interim in this region.…”

Section: Rainfallsupporting

confidence: 57%

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Cruz

Sasaki

2017

SOLA

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This study evaluates the performance of the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) in simulating the present climate over Southeast Asia to determine its applicability in downscaling climate projections in the region. Simulations from 1989 to 2008 are conducted over the region at 25-km resolution using boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset. The topographic effect on rainfall is well represented in NHRCM but can result in wet (dry) biases in the windward (leeward) side of mountains. NHRCM is able to reduce the overestimated rainfall in ERA-Interim, particularly over eastern Philippines and in the Maritime Continent, with improvements in spatial patterns. Both seasonality and daily distribution of rainfall are represented in most regions. On the other hand, there is a tendency to underestimate the number of wet days, especially during the respective wet season of the subregion, and to overestimate daily rainfall intensity. NHRCM also has an overall cold model bias, which reduces the warm bias in ERA-Interim, except for some parts of Indochina during boreal winter and spring. These results indicate the improved representation of present climate in Southeast Asia using NHRCM, and its potential applicability in downscaling climate projections to increase projected climate scenarios for the region.(Citation: Cruz, F. T., and H. Sasaki, 2017: Simulation of present climate over Southeast Asia using the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model. SOLA, 13, 13−18,

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Section: Rainfallsupporting

confidence: 57%

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Cruz

Sasaki

2017

SOLA

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“…The SWM months also coincide with high tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the WNP basin including the Philippines (Cinco et al 2016;Lyon and Camargo 2009;Takahashi and Yasunari 2006). This high frequency of TC makes a substantial contribution on rainfall over the monsoon trough (Takahashi et al 2015a), especially in the northern island of Luzon (Cinco et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Potential impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall over the western Philippines

Dado

Takahashi

2017

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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The study used a 5 km-resolution regional climate model, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model, to quantify the potential impact of sea surface temperature (SST) west of the Philippines on summer monsoon rainfall on the northwestern coast of the country. A set of control simulations (CTL) driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the monthly National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation SST dataset was performed for the months of June to August of 1982-2012. A second set of simulations driven by climatological SST values was performed for the same period. The difference between these two simulation sets is analyzed to determine the sensitivity of rainfall to interannual variations in local SST, not remote SST, via a regional climate model. The CTL simulations represented spatial and temporal variations in rainfall well, yielding realistic climatological rainfall values with high spatial correlations with observations. The interannual correlation of monthly rainfall over the northwestern region of the Philippines was also high when compared to observations. The results showed that positive SST anomalies west of the Philippines induced positive rainfall anomalies in the northwestern Philippines via an increase in latent heat flux from the sea surface, implying that summer monsoon rainfall in the northwestern Philippines is modulated by interannual variations in SST west of the Philippines. The impact of SST on latent heat flux and rainfall were 20-40%, greatly exceeding the 7% approximation from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which can be explained by the enhancement of low-level winds and a weak warming of surface air temperature over the ocean.

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“…The month of June to November were considered as the rainy season in the Philippines (PAGASA 2017). Also, most of the typhoons in the country occur during these period (Cinco et al 2016). Figure 2 shows the monthly spatial distribution of rainfall in the Philippines under baseline climate condition .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Salvacion

2017

Quaestiones Geographicae

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SAlvAcion A.r., 2017. Mapping spatio-temporal changes in climatic suitability of corn in the Philippines under future climate condition. Quaestiones Geographiceae 36(1), Bogucki Wydownictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 105-120, 11 figs, 5 tables.AbStrAct: This study assessed the spatio-temporal changes in corn climatic suitability in the Philippines under future climate condition. Using extracted climatic data from WorldClim database for the country under baseline and future climate condition, changes in corn suitability was assessed using fuzzy logic approach and published rainfall and temperature requirement of the crop. Based on the data, the large portion of the country will experience increase in monthly total rainfall (88%) while increase in monthly mean and minimum temperature under future climate condition is projected for the entire country. These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location. On the average, changes in rainfall resulted in reduction (8%) and improvement (6%) in corn suitability while increase in temperature resulted in 5% and 0.4% reduction and improvement, respectively.

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Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines

Cited by 140 publications

References 41 publications

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Potential impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall over the western Philippines

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

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