Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Salvacion, Arnold R.

doi:10.1515/quageo-2017-0008

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…In the Philippines, like in many other countries, there has been an increasing demand for high‐resolution climate projections, primarily for formulating local climate change adaptation plans. Existing studies that report high‐resolution climate projections for the Philippines are based on a single GCM‐RCM combination (PAGASA, ), statistically downscaled GCMs (Basconcillo et al ., ), or simply based on GCM‐interpolated values (e.g., Salvacion, ). However, the primary source of uncertainty in projecting future climate at the regional scale is modelling uncertainty (i.e., different ways of representing and simulating the climate) (Hawkins and Sutton, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Villafuerte¹,

Macadam

Daron

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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To help meet increasing demands for high‐resolution climate change projections in the Philippines, this study provides the results of multiple dynamically downscaled climate model simulations for projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the country by the mid‐21st century (2036–2065) relative to the baseline period (1971–2000), under the RCP8.5 scenario. The model‐simulated seasonal means of temperature, rainfall, and low‐level wind patterns were first compared with observations during the baseline period. Comparisons made between the model‐derived and APHRODITE observation‐based gridded temperature and rainfall data indicate that the dynamically downscaled simulations provide an overall improvement from their driving global climate models in capturing the spatial patterns of rainfall over the country, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the country's mean temperature. Future climate projections show that the country's climate is expected to become warmer by the mid‐21st century, with a multi‐model ensemble mean increase of 1.2 to 1.9°C, relative to the baseline period, projected for many parts of the country and across most seasons. Slightly higher increases are projected during the country's hottest season, March–April–May. However, there are large differences in the models' projected rainfall changes by the mid‐21st century across seasons and regions. For most parts of the country, the multi‐model ensemble includes simulations that show increases and simulations that show decreases in rainfall. Nevertheless, there is a tendency of model projections towards wetter conditions over northern and central sections of the country (particularly in the December–January–February season) and drier conditions in the southern region of the country in almost all seasons. The results demonstrate the need for communities in the Philippines to adapt to a future warmer climate and prepare for a range of possible future changes in rainfall and temperature.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Villafuerte¹,

Macadam

Daron

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This is demonstrated in the widespread uptake of the WorldClim dataset (Thomas et al 2016;PhilGIS 2017;Salvacion 2017), which enables users to extract high spatial resolution data (up to 1 km) to explore local scale climate change. However, the Bsimple and quickm ethod 7 means data is not spatially coherent and lacks physical plausibility compared to data from dynamical methods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

et al. 2018

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To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multimodel, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate Climatic Change (2018) change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using coproduction approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an Bensemble of opportunity^to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections.

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Mapping land limitations for agricultural land use planning using fuzzy logic approach: a case study for Marinduque Island, Philippines

Salvacion

2019

GeoJournal

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Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Cited by 9 publications

References 68 publications

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

Mapping land limitations for agricultural land use planning using fuzzy logic approach: a case study for Marinduque Island, Philippines

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