Nutrition in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios: Envisioning Feasible Balanced Diets on Resilient Foods

Abstract

Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) following catastrophic events, such as a nuclear war, a large volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike, could prompt global agricultural collapse. There are low-cost foods that could be made available in an ASRS: resilient foods. Nutritionally adequate combinations of these resilient foods are investigated for different stages of a scenario with an effective response, based on existing technology. While macro- and micronutrient requirements were overall met, some—potentially chronic—deficiencies were identified (e.g., vitamins D, E and K). Resilient sources of micronutrients for mitigating these and other potential deficiencies are presented. The results of this analysis suggest that no life-threatening micronutrient deficiencies or excesses would necessarily be present given preparation to deploy resilient foods and an effective response. Careful preparedness and planning—such as stock management and resilient food production ramp-up—is indispensable for an effective response that not only allows for fulfilling people’s energy requirements, but also prevents severe malnutrition.

Deployment of Resilient Foods Can Greatly Reduce Famine in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario

“…Energy and macronutrient requirements represent the minimum recommended daily intake for an average weight adult (62 kg): Energy -2,100 Kcal/day 13 , Protein -51 g/day and Fat -47 g/day 52 . This is in line with previous assessments of GCFS 9,[15][16][17][18] . Quality of protein (i.e., the full complement of amino acids in sufficient proportions), and quality of fat (i.e., sufficient unsaturated fat, and omega-3 and omega6 fatty acids) are beyond the scope of this paper, although baskets of the same resilient foods as discussed in this paper have been calculated to provide a protein-complete diet 9 .…”

“…Xia et al 8 have estimated a global fatality rate of 75% due to starvation in an ASRS catalyzed by a nuclear winter involving 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere ("150 Tg scenario"), but did not evaluate scenarios involving effective global measures taken to bridge the food production shortfall. In this work, we investigate a subset of foods and food production methods known as resilient foods or resilient food solutions, which could allow for significant food production in the face of an ASRS 9 . Resilient food solutions must be scalable and amenable to rapid production ramp-up.…”

“…• A micronutrient-complete diet as laid out in Pham et al 9 , which presents diets constructed out of foods projected to be available following a ASRS. These satisfy minimum and maximum micronutrient (vitamin/mineral) bounds as well as macronutrients.…”

“…Quality of protein (i.e., the full complement of amino acids in sufficient proportions), and quality of fat (i.e., sufficient unsaturated fat, and omega-3 and omega6 fatty acids) are beyond the scope of this paper, although baskets of the same resilient foods as discussed in this paper have been calculated to provide a protein-complete diet 9 . Resilient food diets appear to be able to largely meet key macronutrient and micronutrient requirements at a population scale with adequate nutritional planning 9 . Therefore, meeting specified daily quantities of macronutrients is considered nutritionally sufficient within the model.…”

“…Rapeseed was found to be an efficient source of fat for a 150 Tg scenario. It is assumed that the protein from rapeseed meal would not be used to feed humans, as rapeseed meal is not deemed to be safe for human consumption 9 and it is not guaranteed a technological solution would be achieved in a reasonable timeframe. Wheat was the largest contributor of protein per hectare in the relocated crop model, closely followed by soybean.…”