Human civilization's food production system is currently unprepared for catastrophes that would reduce global food production by 10% or more, such as nuclear winter, supervolcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts. Alternative foods that do not require much or any sunlight have been proposed as a more cost-effective solution than increasing food stockpiles, given the long duration of many global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that could hamper conventional agriculture for 5 to 10 years. Microbial food from single cell protein (SCP) produced via hydrogen from both gasification and electrolysis is analyzed in this study as alternative food for the most severe food shock scenario: a sun-blocking catastrophe. Capital costs, resource requirements and ramp up rates are quantified to determine its viability. Potential bottlenecks to fast deployment of the technology are reviewed. The ramp up speed of food production for 24/7 construction of the facilities over 6 years is estimated to be lower than other alternatives (3-10% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at end of first year), but the nutritional quality of the microbial protein is higher than for most other alternative foods for catastrophes. Results suggest that investment in SCP ramp up should be limited to the production capacity that is needed to fulfill only the minimum recommended protein requirements of humanity during the catastrophe. Further research is needed into more uncertain concerns such as transferability of labor and equipment production. This could help reduce the negative impact of potential food-related GCRs.

Lignocellulosic sugar for food production has a significant role to play in buildingresilience and responding to global disasters and catastrophes, such as concurrentweather events, pandemics or sun-blocking events such as nuclear war, asteroidimpact, and volcanic eruptions that could cause global agricultural failure.This study examines how quickly edible sugar could be scaled globally from the sugarplatform biorefinery and a brewery by a sub-unit component comparison of the NRELBiochemical Sugar Model. We show that 45% of the world’s current sugar demandcould be produced by repurposing the world’s pulp & paper mills after 5 monthsthrough constructing 24/7. This was estimated to reduce the time of construction to32% of the expected time at an increased cost of 1.5 times, meaning sugar productionwould begin after 5 months at a retail cost of $2.40/kg.

In a nuclear war, volcanic eruption, asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS), agricultural yields would plummet. Global society is currently unprepared for such an event, implying an urgent need for evaluation and prioritization of solutions. We show effective deployment of resilient food solutions appears sufficient to fulfill global energy and macronutrient food requirements, potentially saving billions from famine. A Monte Carlo analysis of resilient food outcomes, using a linear optimization model, shows a 95% probability of global food availability between 2,100 and 3,500 Kcals per capita per day in a nuclear winter scenario involving 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere. Our analysis indicates nutritionally sufficient diets from resilient foods would be widely affordable, costing US$1.73 daily, though subsidization could be needed across Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Post-disaster conflict or insufficient international cooperation could increase costs and reduce output, hampering effective resilient food deployment.

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A catastrophe such as supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact or nuclear winter could reduce global food production by 10% or more. Human civilization’s food production system is unprepared to respond to such an event, and current preparedness centers around food stockpiles, an excessively expensive solution given that a global catastrophic risk (GCR) scenario could hamper conventional agriculture for 5 to 10 years. Instead, it is more cost-effective to consider alternative food production techniques requiring little to no sunlight.This study analyses the potential of single-cell protein (SCP) produced from methane (natural gas) as an alternative food source in the case of a catastrophe that considerably blocked sunlight, the most severe food shock scenario. To determine its viability, the following are quantified: global production potential of methane SCP, capital costs, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates and retail prices. In addition, potential bottlenecks to fast deployment are considered.While providing a higher quality of protein than other alternatives, the production capacity would be slower to ramp up. Based on 24/7 construction of facilities, 7-11% of global protein requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year. Results suggest that investment in production ramp up should aim to meet no more than humanity’s minimum protein requirements. Uncertainty remains around the transferability of labor and equipment production, among other key areas. Research on these questions could help reduce the negative impact of potential food-related GCRs.