Deployment of Resilient Foods Can Greatly Reduce Famine in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario

Abstract

In a nuclear war, volcanic eruption, asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS), agricultural yields would plummet. Global society is currently unprepared for such an event, implying an urgent need for evaluation and prioritization of solutions. We show effective deployment of resilient food solutions appears sufficient to fulfill global energy and macronutrient food requirements, potentially saving billions from famine. A Monte Carlo analysis of resilient food outcomes, using a linear optimization model, shows a 95% probability of global food availability between 2,100 and 3,500 Kcals per capita per day in a nuclear winter scenario involving 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere. Our analysis indicates nutritionally sufficient diets from resilient foods would be widely affordable, costing US$1.73 daily, though subsidization could be needed across Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Post-disaster conflict or insufficient international cooperation could increase costs and reduce output, hampering effective resilient food deployment.

Food Security after Nuclear Winter: A Preliminary Agricultural Sector Analysis for Aotearoa New Zealand

“…Such scenarios could include nuclear winter arising from a nuclear war [3]; a large volcanic eruption [4] (particularly if occurring at global pinch points [5]); and a large asteroid/comet impact [6]. Resulting global climate impacts could include a drop in mean temperature that would limit food production possibly causing a catastrophic global food shock [1]. Modelling studies indicate that the impacts of such catastrophes are likely to be highly heterogeneous around the world [3,7].…”

“…The survival of human civilization, or its continued flourishing, could be threatened by a global catastrophe abruptly reducing sunlight reaching the earth [1,2]. Such scenarios could include nuclear winter arising from a nuclear war [3]; a large volcanic eruption [4] (particularly if occurring at global pinch points [5]); and a large asteroid/comet impact [6].…”

“…The survival of human civilization, or its continued flourishing, could be threatened by a global catastrophe abruptly reducing sunlight reaching the earth. 12 Such scenarios could include nuclear winter arising from a nuclear war; 3 large volcanic eruptions 45 ; and a large asteroid/comet impact. 6 Resulting global climate impacts could include a drop in mean temperature that would limit food production possibly causing a catastrophic global food shock.…”

“…6 Resulting global climate impacts could include a drop in mean temperature that would limit food production possibly causing a catastrophic global food shock. 1 Modelling studies indicate that the impacts of such catastrophes are likely to be highly heterogeneous around the world. 37 It is sometimes thought, for example, that islands in the Southern Hemisphere might do better than countries in Northern Hemisphere landmasses during nuclear winter.…”

Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophes

“…Existential catastrophes are those GCRs that would either cause human extinction or prevent a full recovery (Ord, 2020). A global catastrophe could occur if sunlight reaching the earth were abruptly reduced (Rivers et al, 2022). Abrupt sun-reducing scenarios (ASRS) plausibly include nuclear winter (Coupe, Bardeen, Robock, & Toon, 2019), massive volcanic eruption (Rampino, 2008), and asteroid/comet impact (Chiarenza et al, 2020), in which material such as soot, sulphur dioxide or dust is injected into the stratosphere, spreading globally.…”