Not forecasts but multiple scenarios when coping with uncertainties in the competitive environment

Meristö, Tarja

doi:10.1016/0377-2217(89)90011-8

Cited by 29 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Studies of European companies by Malaska [24], Malaska et al [25] and Meristo [29] clearly indicates that in Europe: † scenario planning was not widely used until after the first oil crises in 1973, following which the number of 'adopters' of scenario planning almost doubled; and † there was a further surge of adoption in the period between 1976 and 1978. This led Malaska et al to conclude that the adoption of scenario planning 'is associated with the increasing unpredictability of the corporate environment that took place in the 1970s'.…”

Section: The Growth Of Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Bradfield

Wright

Burt

et al. 2005

Futures

853

606

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Section: The Growth Of Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Bradfield

Wright

Burt

et al. 2005

Futures

853

606

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“…However, little evidence is available about the use and effects of scenario planning on company performance [7,11,36]. The studies by Malaska,Malaska et al,Meristo [37,38,39] in Europe and Linneman and Klein [40] on the use of scenarios by companies are notable exceptions. They reveal that up to the first oil crises, they were not widely used, but in the following period, the number of users more than doubled.…”

Section: 'What Is It and Why Use It?'mentioning

confidence: 99%

Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades

Varum

Melo

2010

Futures

293

201

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This paper provides a systematized overview of patterns in the scenario planning literature published in the last decades. Recently, scenario planning has enjoyed a revival, apparent in the "boom" in published research on the matter. Consequently, a major issue that needs to be addressed is how to organize the literature along precise lines.A number of reviews that describe the current status of the body of literature and knowledge on scenario planning have made attempts to respond to such requirements. These studies agree that systematizing the existing literature is a necessary step in developing the field. This paper aims to contribute to this purpose. The review of the academic literature here conducted is thought to be useful for both academics and practitioners. For researchers, this systematic overview will not only be constructive in providing an analysis of the directions of published research but also in setting up a research agenda for the future. For managers and practitioners, it provides a clear outline of firmrelated articles and discusses their contribution from a managerial point of view. It also raises awareness with regard to future analytical methods, and in particular, to scenario planning and its potential contribution to the competitiveness of firms.

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“…Thereby, scenarios substantially differ from predictions, i.e., extrapolations or trends, substituting the criterion of plausibility for probability [24,66,72]. Formal approaches yield consistency values or scores for each constructed scenario, with such values or scores indicating plausibility.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They direct the project through goal formation and use the results in the contextual process that follows scenario construction. The last point in particular, referring to the extent to which scenarios are actually put into day-to-day practice, is the topic of much debate in the scenario literature [57,64,72,79]. The decision concerning the operating agents to be involved and the nature of their involvement-as is often required in, for example, transdisciplinary settings-predetermines the acceptability and use of the constructed scenarios [7].…”

Section: Strategic Agentsmentioning

confidence: 99%