Functions of scenarios in transition processes

Wiek, Arnim; Binder, Claudia R.; Scholz, Roland

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.003

Cited by 143 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 72 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Social organizations such as countries exist in a continuous process of change punctuated by relatively stable regimes (Wiek et al, 2006). The development trajectory of countries from least developed to fully developed can be viewed as such a process.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The characterization of socio-political instability, development and sustainability with Fisher information

Karunanithi

Garmestani

Eason

et al. 2011

Global Environmental Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The characterization of socio-political instability, development and sustainability with Fisher information

Karunanithi

Garmestani

Eason

et al. 2011

Global Environmental Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…The conditions for a foresight process to act as a safe collaborative space in helping to move toward transformative change are different in each process (Gaventa 2006, Wildemeersch 2007; this means that the challenges differ significantly among cases and situations. Wiek et al (2006) investigate the role of foresight in transition processes, focusing mostly on the possibilities of foresight for the imagination of transition, for capacity development, and for offering recommendations to policy makers. Similarly, Wolfram (2016) describes foresight as a key capacity in the context of (urban) transformations.…”

Section: The Impacts Of Foresight On Transformation Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These spaces are defined as safe collaborative environments for multistakeholder interaction, as a stepping stone for transformative change (Pereira et al 2015). Many see foresight methods as ways to create "temporary transformative spaces" in which a multiactor group imagines futures and explores possible uncertainties (Wiek et al 2006, Kahane 2012. Considering the growing popularity of foresight approaches (Ramírez et al 2008), there is need for reflexivity about and exploration of foresight's role (or lack of a role) in processes aiming at transformative change in diverse governance contexts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imagining transformative futures: participatory foresight for food systems change

Hebinck¹,

Vervoort²,

Hebinck³

et al. 2018

E&S

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT. Transformations inherently involve systems change and because of the political nature of change, are subject to contestation. A potentially effective strategy to further transformative change that builds on interdisciplinary, multiactor, and multiscalepractices and values is the use of foresight. Foresight covers a wide range of methods to systematically investigate the future. Foresight exercises offer collaborative spaces and have the potential to conceptualize and even initiate transformative change. But there is no clear understanding of the possibilities and limitations of foresight in this regard. This explorative paper builds on foresight and sociology and interrogates the role of foresight in transformative change, building on four cases. These cases are embedded in different contexts and characterized by different organizational approaches and constellations of actors. Nevertheless, they share the common goal of transformative food systems change. By reflecting on the processes that play a role in foresight workshops, we analyze what created conditions for transformative change in these four empirical cases. We have operationalized these conditions by distinguishing layers in the structuring processes that influence the impact of the foresight process. Based on this analysis, we conclude that there are three roles, ranging from modest to more ambitious, that foresight can play in transformative change: preconceptualization of change; offering an avenue for the creation of new actor networks; and creation of concrete strategies with a high chance of implementation. Furthermore, contributing to future design of foresight processes for transformative change, we offer some crucial points to consider before designing foresight processes. These include the role of leading change makers (including researchers), the risk of co-option by more regime-driven actors, and the ability to attract stakeholders to participate.

show abstract

“…The ability of individuals and groups to envision possible, likely, and desirable futures that can guide decisionmaking and direct social change in collectively determined directions is an essential capacity for securing social well-being and prosperity in times of rapid and often unpredictable global change (Shaw et al, 2009;Sheppard et al, 2011;Wiek et al, 2006). W. Patrick McCray argues that managing these transformational shifts requires "creating visions of the future and the technologies that might help shape it."…”

Section: Imagining Transformational Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Imaginary politics: Climate change and making the future

Milkoreit

2017

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

107

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change places major transformational demands on modern societies. Transformations require the capacity to collectively envision and meaningfully debate realistic and desirable futures. Without such a collective imagination capacity and active deliberation processes, societies lack both the motivation for change and guidance for decision-making in a certain direction of change. Recent arguments that science fiction can play a role in societal transformation processes is not yet supported by theory or empirical evidence. Advancing the argument that fiction can support sustainability transformations, this paper makes four contributions. First, building on the imaginary concept, I introduce and define the idea of socio-climatic imaginaries. Second, I develop a theory of imagination as linked cognitive-social processes that enable the creation of collectively shared visions of future states of the world. This theory addresses the dynamics that bridge imagination processes in the individual mind and collective imagining that informs social and political decision-making. Third, emphasizing the political nature of creating and contesting imaginaries in a society, I introduce the role of power and agency in this theory of collective imagination. I argue that both ideational and structural power concepts are relevant for understanding the potential societal influence of climate fiction. Finally, the paper illuminates these different forms of transformational power and agency with two brief case studies: two climate fiction novels. I contrast a dystopian and utopian science fiction novel -Paolo Bacigalupi's The Water Knife (2015) and Kim Stanley Robinson's Green Earth (2015). The two books are very similar in their power/agency profile, but the comparison provides initial insights into the different roles of optimistic and pessimistic future visions.

show abstract

Functions of scenarios in transition processes

Cited by 143 publications

References 72 publications

The characterization of socio-political instability, development and sustainability with Fisher information

The characterization of socio-political instability, development and sustainability with Fisher information

Imagining transformative futures: participatory foresight for food systems change

Imaginary politics: Climate change and making the future

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About