The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Bradfield, Ron; Wright, George; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Heijden, Kees van der

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003

Cited by 853 publications

(705 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning (Porter, 1985, Bradfield et al, 2005, Ringland, 2010. The question that emerges is how we can learn from using and developing future scenarios to assist in the orientation of innovation systems?…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Hamel and Prahalad (1994) emphasise that strategy should draw up consistent visions of the future. In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning (Porter, 1985, Godet, 1990, Wilson, 2000, Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003, Bradfield et al, 2005, Ringland, 2010.…”

Section: Grand Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenario building and planning was further developed for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack, Peter Schwartz and many others (Wilkinson & Eidinow, 2008). Since then, scenario approaches have continued to evolve and their use seems to be increasing again (van Notten et al, 2003;Bradfield et al, 2005, Van Asselt, 2010.…”

Section: Scenario Practice and Related Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Smedt

Borch

Fuller

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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In recent years and accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy making. These grand challenges require policy makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of innovative solutions. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analysing several scenario cases, elements of good practice and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. Highlights-Grand challenges bringing the social dimension of innovation in the picture -Investigating the role for futures thinking and scenarios to inspire innovation -Future scenarios as a tool for orienting innovation systems

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Grand Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scenario Practice and Related Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Smedt

Borch

Fuller

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…[21] Scenario planning can take many different forms. [10,22,23] The method chosen for the SPD was an adaptation of the intuitive logics approach that was pioneered by Royal Dutch/Shell. [24] This is a logical, structured approach [25] that relies on the tacit and subjective knowledge of participants.…”

Section: Scenario Planning Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Looking to the future: Framing the implementation of interprofessional education and practice with scenario planning

Forman

Nicol

2015

Educ Health

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Background: Adapting to interprofessional education and practice requires a change of perspective for many health professionals. We aimed to explore the potential of scenario planning to bridge the understanding gap and framing strategic planning for interprofessional education (IPE) and practice (IPP), as well as to implement innovative techniques and technology for large-group scenario planning. Methods: A full-day scenario planning workshop incorporating innovative methodology was designed and offered to participants. The 71 participants included academics from nine universities, as well as service providers, government, students and consumer organisations. The outcomes were evaluated by statistical and thematic analysis of a mixed method survey questionnaire. Results: The scenario planning method resulted in a positive response as a means of collaboratively exploring current knowledge and broadening entrenched attitudes. It was perceived to be an effective instrument for framing strategy for the implementation of IPE/IPP, with 81 percent of respondents to a post-workshop survey indicating they would consider using scenario planning in their own organisations. Discussion: The scenario planning method can be used by tertiary academic institutions as a strategy in developing, implementing and embedding IPE, and for the enculturation of IPP in practice settings.

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“…This allays the challenge of working with "different and at times conflicting definitions" of the terms [2].…”

Section: Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

Phadnis

Caplice

Singh

et al. 2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application using a case study. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.

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The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Cited by 853 publications

References 23 publications

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Looking to the future: Framing the implementation of interprofessional education and practice with scenario planning

Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

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