Nonstationarity in building flow duration curves aiming at obtaining water resource permits

Detzel, Daniel Henrique Marco; Fernandes, Cristóvão Vicente Scapulatempo; Mine, Miriam Rita Moro

doi:10.21168/rbrh.v21n1.p80-87

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Thus, increases in annual flow are not necessarily related to increases in the annual minima. In line with our results, Detzel et al () also found an increase in low flows (i.e., the 95th percentile of the flow duration curve) in downstream Iguaçu, where low flows increased by 23% in the period after 1969 compared to pre‐1969.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In Southern Brazil (SB) there were increases in annual average, minimum, and maximum streamflow (Bartiko et al, 2017;Berbery & Barros, 2002;Detzel et al, 2016;Doyle & Barros, 2011;Hirata et al, 2010;Marques, 2012;Pasquini & Depetris, 2007), generally associated with rainfall variability (Doyle & Barros, 2011;Maciel et al, 2013;Saurral et al, 2008). The Uruguay and the Paraná rivers, which downstream become the La Plata River, have experienced in the last century one of the greatest annual streamflow increases in the world (Milliman et al, 2008;Piao et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Land Cover in the Propagation of Rainfall Into Streamflow Trends

Chagas

Chaffe

2018

Water Resources Research

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The replacement of natural forests with agriculture is generally associated with modifications in the hydrological behavior of a basin. This is particularly notable in the tropics and subtropics. Southern Brazil is a region with extensive agricultural production, forest conservation, and a vast unexplored streamflow data despite substantial rainfall trends observed in recent decades. In this work, we explore trends in the streamflow regime in the majority of the monitored basins in Southern Brazil. Additionally, we evaluate if pristine forested basins and agricultural nonforested basins have significantly different streamflow responses to changes in rainfall. We analyzed annual averages, maxima, minima, and seasonality of a 36‐year data set (1975–2010) of 675 rainfall and 140 streamflow gauges. Results reveal that large trends are widespread in Southern Brazil, especially in basins with areas smaller than 10,000 km2. Changes in the rainfall regime did not directly translate into changes in the streamflow regime. Changes in the annual maximum flow of forested basins were not statistically significant even when the annual average and maximum rainfall increased significantly. Correlations between changes in rainfall and streamflow for two indices, namely, duration of low‐magnitude events and seasonality, were statistically significant (p < 0.05) only for agricultural basins. The results indicate a higher propagation of hydrological changes through anthropogenically modified systems, providing evidence that agricultural basins are more sensitive to changes in the rainfall regime.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Land Cover in the Propagation of Rainfall Into Streamflow Trends

Chagas

Chaffe

2018

Water Resources Research

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“…In addition, report that decisions made regarding conditions of climatic variables are relevant for agricultural management and, in certain situations, can assure the success of a venture. Thus, knowledge of the spatial-temporal variation of rainfall and mean air temperature based on a historical series may be an essential predictor of these phenomena in a specific region (Detzel et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-temporal variability of rainfall and mean air temperature for the state of Bahia, Brazil

Medauar

Silva

Carvalho

et al. 2020

An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate spatial behavior and temporal stability of rainfall and mean air temperature in the state of Bahia, using historical series from 1975 to 2011 and 1961 to 2009, respectively. The analyses were performed considering the accumulated variables of each month of the historical series. The accumulated monthly totals were divided by the number of years of observation, obtaining the monthly average values of rainfall and air temperature for each measurement point. The data were submitted to descriptive statistical analysis and linear correlation studies. Geostatistical analysis was used to verify the existence and quantify spatial dependence between the values of the studied variables. In addition, the maps were submitted to algebra operations, calculating the spatial difference between months for each of the variables. For that purpose, the difference between one month and its subsequent period was calculated in order to establish the behavior of the variables over time. Climatic variables showed a close relationship between each other, demonstrating their spatial and temporal variation, which is mainly dependent on the seasons of the year. The rainfall and mean air temperature variables showed stable spatial behavior and high temporal stability between subsequent months.

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“…Detzel and Mine (2014) reviewed some proposed methods for nonstationarity studies and presented application of these in a fluviometric series corresponding to a gauge located in the Iguazu River. Detzel, Fernandes and Mine (2016) evaluated the effects of nonstationarity approach in the assessment of water availability in six Brazilian fluviometric gauges and found changes in the flow duration curves of the analyzed series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationarity in maximum annual daily streamflow series from Southern Brazil

Bartiko

Chaffe

Bonumá

2017

RBRH

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Extreme streamflow values estimates are important for flood risk assessment and also for the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The behavior of this hydrological variable is under climate and land use changes effects and river's course modifications caused by construction and operation of large reservoirs. The assumption of stationarity commonly adopted in flood frequency and magnitude analysis studies is questionable under such circumstances. In this work we identified nonstationary annual maximum streamflow series corresponding to fluviometric gauges located in Southern Brazil. A nonstationary frequency model was applied to those series and the results were compared with those of a stationary model. We also evaluated the presence of abrupt changes in the series. The results indicate that 75 of 157 series of Southern Brazil may be considered nonstationary, most of which are in the Iguazu, the Paranapanema and the Uruguay basins. For a planning horizon equal to 10 years, the return period of the present 100 years flood changes to 48-75 years when considering the nonstationary model, respectively. Abrupt changes were identified mainly as occurring in the 70's.Keywords: Frequency analysis; Nonstationarity; Return period; Southern Brazil. RESUMOEstimativas de valores extremos de vazão são importantes para a avaliação de riscos de cheias e também para a concepção e operação de estruturas hidráulicas. O comportamento desta variável hidrológica está sobre efeito de mudanças no clima, no uso e cobertura do solo e também de alterações nos cursos d'água provocadas por construção e operação de grandes reservatórios. Estes fatos tornam questionável a premissa de estacionariedade comumente adotada nos estudos de análise de frequência e magnitude de cheias. Neste trabalho foram identificadas séries fluviométricas de vazões máximas anuais não estacionárias no Sul do Brasil. Para estas séries foi aplicado um modelo de análise de frequência não estacionário e os resultados comparados com os fornecidos por um modelo estacionário. Também foi avaliada a presença de mudanças abruptas nas séries históricas. Os resultados indicam que 75 de um total de 157 séries do sul do Brasil podem ser consideradas não estacionárias, sendo que a maior parte das mesmas está concentrada nas bacias dos rios Iguaçu, Paranapanema e Uruguai. Quando considerado um horizonte de planejamento de 10 anos, o tempo de retorno de uma cheia estimada como 100 anos muda para 48-75 anos considerando o modelo não-estacionário. Mudanças abruptas foram identificadas principalmente na década de 70.

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Nonstationarity in building flow duration curves aiming at obtaining water resource permits

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

The Role of Land Cover in the Propagation of Rainfall Into Streamflow Trends

The Role of Land Cover in the Propagation of Rainfall Into Streamflow Trends

Spatial-temporal variability of rainfall and mean air temperature for the state of Bahia, Brazil

Nonstationarity in maximum annual daily streamflow series from Southern Brazil

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