Nonlinear dynamic analysis of an epidemiological model for COVID-19 including public behavior and government action

Kwuimy, C. A. Kitio; Nazari, Fariba; Jiao, Xun; Rohani, Pejman; Nataraj, C.

doi:10.1007/s11071-020-05815-z

Cited by 63 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Due to limited epidemic conditions, it is difficult to obtain data related to COVID-19 EP between cities. First, we studied the basic way in which simulation parameters were set in references [25][26][27][28] in detail. The parameter setting simulation was based on the parameter setting methods used in these studies.…”

Section: Data Fittingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevention schemes for future pandemic cases: mathematical model and experience of interurban multi-agent COVID-19 epidemic prevention

Yin

Zhang

2021

Nonlinear Dyn

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To enhance the effectiveness of epidemic prevention (EP) in urban sustainability transformation, joint prevention and control mechanism should be established to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic. The interurban multi-agent EP strategy, as a key component of this mechanism, includes the spontaneous EP model, the superior leading EP model, and the collaborative EP model. In this study, firstly, the theoretical mechanism of the interurban multiagent EP strategy was analyzed. Then, we proposed a three-party differential game model including factors such as the risk coefficient for the virus infection and EP experience teaching. Finally, prevention strategies, prevention efficiency, and prevention losses were compared under the three models based on theoretical analysis and numerical analysis. The results of this study are as follows. COVID-19 EP should be guided by a model of central government (CG) leadership, interurban collaboration, and social participation. The CG and urban governments (UGs) should comprehensively carry out COVID-19 EP from various aspects, including EP experience teaching, mass EP comfort, the utilization rate of EP funds, and the ability to implement strategies. During the course of the COVID-19 EP, when the CG and UGs transition from spontaneous EP model to a higher-level EP model, the UG's EP efforts will be enhanced. Under the collaborative EP model, the CG and UGs undergo the highest levels of EP effort. Compared with spontaneous EP model, the superior leading EP model can promote a Pareto improvement for all parties. From the perspective of total loss, the collaborative EP model is superior to the other two EP models. This study not only provides practical guidance for coordinating interurban relationships and enabling multiagents to fully form joint forces, but also provides theoretical support for the establishment of an interurban joint EP mechanism under unified leadership.Keywords COVID-19 Á Joint prevention and control Á Urban governance Á Multi-agent collaboration Á Urban sustainability transformation Á Differential game

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Section: Data Fittingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevention schemes for future pandemic cases: mathematical model and experience of interurban multi-agent COVID-19 epidemic prevention

Yin

Zhang

2021

Nonlinear Dyn

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“…The parameter κ represents the intensity of the individual reaction. Kwuimy et al [19], on the other hand, proposed the following expression:…”

Section: The Dimensional Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper we examine the bifurcation behavior of a SEIR model when the transmission rate takes explicitly into account governmental action and population response to the severity of the pandemic. Although a number of studies have included the effects of governmental action and individual response in models of COVID-19 [6,19], there is few work in the literature on the bifurcation and stability of such models. The recent work of Kwuimy et al [19] showed the importance of governmental action and social behavior in COVID-19 dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bifurcation analysis of a SEIR epidemic system with governmental action and individual reaction

Ajbar

Alqahtani

2020

Adv Differ Equ

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In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a SEIR epidemic system that takes into account governmental action and individual reaction is investigated. The transmission rate takes into account the impact of governmental action modeled as a step function while the decreasing contacts among individuals responding to the severity of the pandemic is modeled as a decreasing exponential function. We show that the proposed model is capable of predicting Hopf bifurcation points for a wide range of physically realistic parameters for the COVID-19 disease. In this regard, the model predicts periodic behavior that emanates from one Hopf point. The model also predicts stable oscillations connecting two Hopf points. The effect of the different model parameters on the existence of such periodic behavior is numerically investigated. Useful diagrams are constructed that delineate the range of periodic behavior predicted by the model.

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“…Starting from (8) we can calculate the average number of contacts (per unit of time) between agents from within subgroups S 1 ∪ R 1 :…”

Section: Sir Model and Wealth Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age-structured SIR model and resource growth dynamics: A preliminary COVID-19 study

Babajanyan

Cheong

2020

Preprint

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In this paper, we discuss three different response strategies to a disease outbreak and their economic implications in an age-structured population. We have utilized the classical age structured SIR-model, thus assuming that recovered people will not be infected again. Available resource dynamics is governed by the well-known logistic growth model, in which the reproduction coefficient depends on the disease outbreak spreading dynamics. We further investigate the feedback interaction of the disease spread dynamics and resource growth dynamics with the premise that the quality of treatment depends on the current economic situation. The very inclusion of mortality rates and economic considerations in the same model may be incongruous under certain positions, but in this model, we take a 'realpolitik' approach by exploring all of these factors together as it is done in reality.

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Nonlinear dynamic analysis of an epidemiological model for COVID-19 including public behavior and government action

Cited by 63 publications

References 38 publications

Prevention schemes for future pandemic cases: mathematical model and experience of interurban multi-agent COVID-19 epidemic prevention

Prevention schemes for future pandemic cases: mathematical model and experience of interurban multi-agent COVID-19 epidemic prevention

Bifurcation analysis of a SEIR epidemic system with governmental action and individual reaction

Age-structured SIR model and resource growth dynamics: A preliminary COVID-19 study

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