Niche models inform the effects of climate change on the endangered Nilgiri Tahr (Nilgiritragus hylocrius) populations in the southern Western Ghats, India

Sony, R.K.; Sen, Sandeep; Kumar, Sunil; Sen, Monalisa; Jayahari, Kannambally Madathil

doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2018.06.017

Cited by 48 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…In previous similar studies, the ENMeval data package was rarely used for optimization, and even the relevant studies that used ENMeval packets generally considered less than 96 parameter combinations. Therefore, after comparing 144 optimized combinations, the conclusions are relatively accurate [61].…”

Section: Bioclimatic Predictors and Model Performancementioning

confidence: 98%

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Zhao

Zhang

et al. 2020

Forests

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Semiliquidambar cathayensis is a special and endangered plant in China, used for traditional Chinese medicine and in landscape applications. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of S. cathayensis is crucial for its protection and the sustainable use of resources. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model optimized by the ENMeval data packet to analyze the potential geographic distribution changes of S. cathayensis in 12 provinces of Southern China for the different periods since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). Considering the potential geographic distribution changes in the province, and based on the two climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5, the distribution range of S. cathayensis was analyzed and we predicted the range for the 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080). The area under AUC (Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.9388 under these parameters, which indicates that the model is very accurate. We speculate that the glacial period refugia were the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains for S. cathayensis, and central and Western Fujian and Taiwan are likely to be the future climate refugia. In the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka), the growth habitat was 32.41% larger than the modern habitat; in the 2050s and 2070s (except RCP2.6–2070s), the growth habitat will shrink to varying degrees, so efforts to support its in situ and ex situ conservation are urgently needed. The jackknife test showed that the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of S. cathayensis were annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation of the driest month. The annual precipitation may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of S. cathayensis. In general, the centroid of the distribution of S. cathayensis will move northward. The centroid of the adaptive habitats will move northward with the highest degree of climate abnormality. We think that Hainan Island is the most likely origin of S. cathayensis. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of genetic resources protection measures, the construction of core germplasm resources, and the study of the formation and evolution of Hamamelidaceae.

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Section: Bioclimatic Predictors and Model Performancementioning

confidence: 98%

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Zhao

Zhang

et al. 2020

Forests

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“…Its quality can directly affect the distribution, quantity, and survival rate of organisms (Block & Brennan, 1993;Hall, Krausman, & Morrison, 1997). At present, habitat loss or fragmentation is one of the most important factors threatening the survival of organisms (Brooks et al, 2002;Haddad et al, 2015;Sony, Sen, Kumar, Sen, & Jayahari, 2018), and understanding the habitat suitability and influencing factors of species habitat is fundamental to protect threatened species (Austin, 2002;Margules & Pressey, 2000). From an ecological point of view, environmental predictors can limit distribution of organisms and affect their habitat suitability (Sexton, McIntyre, Angert, & Rice, 2009;Wiens, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maxent modeling for predicting the spatial distribution of three raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park, China

Zhang

Jiang

Li³

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

113

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Upland buzzard (Buteo hemilasius), Saker falcon (Falco cherrug), and Himalayan vulture (Gyps himalayensis) are three common large raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP), China's first national park. Among them, Upland buzzard and Saker falcon play a significant role in controlling plateau rodent populations and reducing the transmission of pathogens carried by rodents. The Himalayan vulture can provide services for the redistribution and recycling of nutrients in the ecosystem, and play an irreplaceable role in the celestial burial culture of Tibetans in China. Exploring their habitat suitability is important for the protection of the three raptors. Our research was based on the current distribution of Upland buzzard, Saker falcon, and Himalayan vulture that we had extensively surveyed in the Sanjiangyuan National Park from 2016 to 2017. Combined with the correlation analysis of environmental variables, we utilized maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate and compare the habitat suitability of the three species in the Sanjiangyuan National Park. Elevation, climate, and human disturbance factors, which had direct or indirect effects on species survival and reproduction, were all included in the model. Among them, elevation was the most important environmental variables affecting the suitability of habitats of three species. Temperature‐related factor was another important predictor. The high (>60%) suitable habitat areas for Upland buzzard, Saker falcon, and Himalayan vulture were 73,017.63, 40,732.78, and 61,654.33 km2, respectively, accounted for 59.32%, 33.09%, and 50.08% of the Sanjiangyuan National Park and their total suitable area (i.e., the sum area of high and moderate habitats) reached 96.07%, 60.59%, and 93.70%, respectively. Besides, the three species have overlapping areas for the suitable habitats, which means that overlapping areas should be highly valued and protected. Therefore, understanding the distribution of suitable habitats of the three raptors can provide useful information and reasonable reference for us to put forward suggestions for their protection and regional management.

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“…The WG receives both the Northeast and Southwest monsoon and receives the average rainfall of 300-400 cm. In the present scenario, the WG is confronting severe threats from the developmental activities, deforestation, forest encroachment, infra-structure developmental actions, agricultural expansion, hydro-electric projects, mining, timber logging, forest product extraction, and other human-induced stress (Menon and Bawa 1997 ; Priti et al 2016 ; Sen et al 2016 ; Sony et al 2018 ; Raman et al 2020 ). Identical to other tropical montane ecosystems, WG is in a rapid transforming stage, but the exact pace and form are poorly understood.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat suitability model of endangered Latidens salimalii and the probable consequences of global warming

Raman

Shameer²,

Charles

et al. 2020

Trop Ecol

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Salim Ali's fruit bat, Latidens salimalii, is a monotypic endangered fruit bat endemic to Western Ghats (WG) with an ambiguous distribution. The distribution range, habitat suitability, and biology of this species are still uncertain. Endemic species inhabiting the high elevation of WG like L. salimalii are threatened due to climatic change and seeks urgent management interventions. Hence, we developed a habitat suitability model for L. salimalii using MaxEnt in the current climate condition and projected their distribution for three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) climate scenarios of the 2070 time frame. The results show that 9531 km 2 of habitat in WG is suitable for L. salimalii at present, while all the future scenarios estimates propose complete loss of highly suitable habitat. The significant factors influencing the distribution of L. salimalii are the precipitation of the driest month, tree density, rain in the coldest quarter, canopy height, and altitude. The study pioneers in predicting the suitable habitat and emphasis the need to develop strategies for the long-term conservation of endangered L. salimalii in WG under global warming scenarios.

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Niche models inform the effects of climate change on the endangered Nilgiri Tahr (Nilgiritragus hylocrius) populations in the southern Western Ghats, India

Cited by 48 publications

References 50 publications

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Maxent modeling for predicting the spatial distribution of three raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park, China

Habitat suitability model of endangered Latidens salimalii and the probable consequences of global warming

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