Niche-based prediction of establishment of biocontrol agents: an example with<i>Gratiana boliviana</i>and tropical soda apple

Mukherjee, Abhishek; Díaz, Rodrigo; Thom, Matthew D.; Overholt, William A.

doi:10.1080/09583157.2012.664616

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…While this may be true in terms of the fundamental niche of a species, biotic interactions such as competition, predation/parasitism and symbiosis are major determinants of the realized niche of a species and therefore of their observed distribution (Davis et al, 1998;Bullock et al, 2000;Pearson & Dawson, 2003;Ara ujo & Peterson, 2012). Indeed, the role of biotic interactions has been acknowledged by the Biotic-Abiotic-Movement (BAM) framework (Sober on & Nakamura, 2009) and in a number of recently developed species distribution models where, for example, the distribution of a parasitoid is restricted to areas where two generations of its host insect occur (Haye et al, 2013) or the BEMs of a weed and its biological control agent are overlapped to predict where the weed would be successfully controlled (Mukherjee et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Berzitis

Minigan

Hallett

et al. 2014

Global Change Biology

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The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM-scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Berzitis

Minigan

Hallett

et al. 2014

Global Change Biology

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“…Models developed on a native landscape and determined to accurately predict the species’ presence in the native range can be projected, or transferred, onto novel geographical areas. Transferred models have been used to predict suitable areas for invasive species [11,12], to predict the effects of climate change on species’ range [13,14], and to test niche conservatism hypotheses [15,16]. Ecological niche modeling has been incorporated into phylogeographic studies by evaluating whether genetically defined sub-populations are associated with divergence in ecological niche and geographic distribution [17–21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological Niche Modeling of Bacillus anthracis on Three Continents: Evidence for Genetic-Ecological Divergence?

et al. 2013

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We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models.

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“…A population reported in Pennsylvania in the summer of 1996 (Lingenfelter & Curran 1998) apparently did not become established (D. D. Lingenfelter, personal communication). A study of the physiological limitations of TSA suggested that it may be able to establish as far north as areas in Virginia, Illinois, Kansas and Colorado (Patterson et al 1997), although a recent climate modeling exercise (Mukherjee et al 2012) suggested that TSA may have already colonized the majority of suitable areas in North America. TSA invades a variety of habitats including ditch banks, citrus groves, sugarcane fields, and natural areas, but is primarily an economic problem in pastures Salaudeen et al 2012a).…”

Section: Tropical Soda Applementioning

confidence: 97%

Successful Biological Control of Tropical Soda Apple (Solanales: Solanaceae) in Florida: A Review of Key Program Components

Díaz

Manrique

Hibbard

et al. 2014

Florida Entomologist

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Niche-based prediction of establishment of biocontrol agents: an example withGratiana bolivianaand tropical soda apple

Cited by 9 publications

References 34 publications

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Ecological Niche Modeling of Bacillus anthracis on Three Continents: Evidence for Genetic-Ecological Divergence?

Successful Biological Control of Tropical Soda Apple (Solanales: Solanaceae) in Florida: A Review of Key Program Components

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