Ecological Niche Modeling of Bacillus anthracis on Three Continents: Evidence for Genetic-Ecological Divergence?

Mullins, J. Thomas; Garofolo, Giuliano; Ert, Matthew Van; Fasanella, Antonio; Lukhnova, Larisa; Hugh‐Jones, Martin; Blackburn, Jason K.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072451

Cited by 55 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(106 reference statements)

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“…To develop models, we used 50 spatially unique anthrax outbreaks from the A1.a sublineage, as the A1.a sublineage in dominant in regions spanning from south Texas through the Dakotas (Mullins et al 2015). We expanded the outbreak dataset of Mullins et al (2013) to include new confirmed A1.a outbreaks from Texas and Colorado. Outbreaks occurred between 2000 and 2012 and included culture confirmed mortality events in livestock and wildlife.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Outbreaks occurred between 2000 and 2012 and included culture confirmed mortality events in livestock and wildlife. We used the same environmental variables as Mullins et al (2013): elevation, annual temperature range, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of the wettest month, annual precipitation (WorldClim database (Hijmans et al 2005)), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), NDVI annual amplitude and mean annual NDVI (Hay et al 2006). We also added two soils variables to improve model accuracy: average soil pH and average organic content from the harmonized world soils database (HWSD; FAO/IIASA/CISS-CAS/JRC 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, ENM approaches have been used to predict the spatial distribution of disease vectors (Costa et al 2002) and pathogens (Nakazawa et al 2010). Likewise, ENMs can be used to predict the potential distribution of environmentally maintained pathogens, such as Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax (Blackburn et al 2007; Joyner et al 2010; Mullins et al 2011; Mullins et al 2013). The potential distribution of B. anthracis can be interpreted as landscapes characterized by biotic and abiotic conditions that support the persistence of B. anthracis spores.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana

Morris

Blackburn

2016

EcoHealth

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Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage, and can lead to large scale die offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana

Morris

Blackburn

2016

EcoHealth

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“…The environmental niche of the disease agent or vector is also needed for developing models to predict the potential geographic extent of the disease (30). This information can help inform whether a disease might affect a species throughout its geographic range or whether environmental refuges might be expected ( 31 ).…”

Section: Identifying Key Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

Russell¹,

Katz²,

Richgels³

et al. 2017

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

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“…9 Such models provide testable hypotheses of a species' distribution potential. 10 ENM approaches have been used to predict the distribution of B. anthracis across several landscapes under current 9,[11][12][13] and future climatic conditions. 9,14 Such models provide a "first estimate" of where the pathogen may persist and Kracalik and others 7 suggested national passive surveillance should include the appropriate diagnostic tools and regional veterinary training to properly detect outbreaks in areas predicted by ENMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Ecological Niche of Bacillus anthracis to Map Anthrax Risk in Kyrgyzstan

Blackburn¹,

Matakarimov²,

Kozhokeeva³

et al. 2017

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Anthrax, caused by the environmental bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is an important zoonosis nearly worldwide. In Central Asia, anthrax represents a major veterinary and public health concern. In the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, ongoing anthrax outbreaks have been reported in humans associated with handling infected livestock and contaminated animal by-products such as meat or hides. The current anthrax situation has prompted calls for improved insights into the epidemiology, ecology, and spatial distribution of the disease in Kyrgyzstan to better inform control and surveillance. Disease control for both humans and livestock relies on annual livestock vaccination ahead of outbreaks. Toward this, we used a historic database of livestock anthrax reported from 1932 to 2006 mapped at high resolution to develop an ecological niche model-based prediction of B. anthracis across Kyrgyzstan and identified spatial clusters of livestock anthrax using a cluster morphology statistic. We also defined the seasonality of outbreaks in livestock. Cattle were the most frequently reported across the time period, with the greatest number of cases in late summer months. Our niche models defined four areas as suitable to support pathogen persistence, the plateaus near Talas and Bishkek, the valleys of western Kyrgyzstan along the Fergana Valley, and the low-lying areas along the shore of Lake Isyk-Kul. These areas should be considered "at risk" for livestock anthrax and subsequent human cases. Areas defined by the niche models can be used to prioritize anthrax surveillance and inform efforts to target livestock vaccination campaigns.

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Ecological Niche Modeling of Bacillus anthracis on Three Continents: Evidence for Genetic-Ecological Divergence?

Cited by 55 publications

References 52 publications

Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana

Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

Modeling the Ecological Niche of Bacillus anthracis to Map Anthrax Risk in Kyrgyzstan

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